Gustav: What's at stake

A hurricane threatens to halt much of the Gulf of Mexico's oil production, which could send crude and gas prices back up near mid-summer levels.

NEW YORK - The Gulf of Mexico is home to 4,000 drilling platforms and 33,000 miles of pipeline, which send 1.3 million barrels a day to the Gulf Coast's 56 refineries. But a hurricane threatens to deal a powerful blow to the oil-rich region.

Hurricane Gustav, which just smacked Jamaica with heavy rain and winds, is heading towards the Gulf of Mexico, and forecasters predict its path will steer right through the heart of the region's biggest concentration of oil and gasoline producers.

Experts say the storm has the potential to significantly disrupt oil production in the region, potentially damaging gasoline refineries, which could send the price of oil and gas back up near record highs.

Production disruption: Though meteorologists stressed that storm prediction is an uncertain practice, by the time it is expected to hit Louisiana on Tuesday, forecasters say the storm is likely to intensify into a Category 3 hurricane. That would bring 130 mile per hour winds to the region, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"Production will be shut down in the path of the storm," said Cathy Landry, a spokeswoman for the American Petroleum Institute. "Not every rig will be in the storm's path, but the oil companies tend to be very cautious."

The average hurricane halts oil drilling production for more than a week, according to API. Many companies have already begun the evacuation process, as rig workers are forced to evacuate two to three days before the storm hits. As soon as it's safe to return, they have to check for damage before they can restart production.

"Platforms have to withstand not just the winds, but also waves, rain and currents," Landry noted.

The U.S. Department of the Interior estimates that 76% of the Gulf of Mexico's platforms and 67% of Gulf pipelines were in the direct path of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. The cyclones, both of which reached Category 5 strength, destroyed 113 offshore oil and natural gas platforms and damaged 457 pipelines.

Gustav appears to be heading in the same direction - right up the gut of the oil drilling and refining region.

"If the storm was heading West or East, then companies could just shut down one region of the Gulf," Landry said. "But it looks to be heading through the center, so a good portion of the Gulf will be shut down."

Refinery damage: The big storms in 2004 and 2005 did considerable damage to oil drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, severely cutting into supply to gasoline refineries on the shore.

Though slow-moving, weak tropical storms over the Gulf of Mexico can halt oil drilling, powerful hurricanes that hit land can knock out refineries. That's because about 40% of U.S. refining capacity is located on the Gulf Coast, namely in oft-hit states like Texas and Louisiana. After Katrina and Rita, 30% of Gulf Coast refineries were shut down or operating with reductions.

It's rare for a refinery to be totally knocked out by a hurricane, but many are susceptible to wind and water damage that can limit supply to and from the facilities. Similar to offshore drilling platforms, refineries are sometimes shut down for more than a week before they can return to full operability, according to API.

Part of the reason Katrina and Rita led to such a spike in gas prices was that there weren't enough functional facilities to make up for the lost output. Although capacity at many U.S. oil refineries has been expanded, there hasn't been a new refinery built in the United States in three decades.

Prices could jump: Some of those living on the Gulf Coast have already reported seeing gas prices jump nearly 10 cents over the past few days. If Gustav damages refineries, prices could go much higher.

"Depending on the timing and impact, the storm could really move this market," said Alaron Trading analyst Dan Flynn. "It's not a far stretch to see oil back over $125 and gas back above $4."

Flynn noted that Tropical Storm Hanna also threatens to enter the Gulf of Mexico, though its path is less certain.

In 2005, the Gulf Coast was battered by two hurricanes - Katrina and Rita - in the span of a few weeks, bringing many Americans their first glimpse at $3 a gallon for regular gas. The destruction from Hurricane Katrina alone led gasoline prices to jump 46 cents, or 17%, in just one week to a national average of $3.11, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

A similar surge now would send gas prices to nearly $4.40 a gallon, well past the previous record of $4.11 a gallon set in July and erasing all the declines seen over the last few weeks.

"The bottom line is what the damage to the refineries will be, but the markets still tend to overreact," Flynn added. "We'll likely see a big spike in the price of gasoline prices."

May not be so bad: Experts say, however, the fallout from Katrina and Rita is unlikely to be repeated.

"Yes, there will be an impact on the market, but we're much better prepared now than we were before Katrina and Rita," said Landry.

Since 2005, the industry began making changes to the structures. The Interior Department in April 2008 imposed more stringent design and assessment criteria for both new and existing structures located within particular Gulf of Mexico areas.

For example, drilling rigs moored to sea floor in the Gulf had been attached with eight lines, and are now required to be moored with 12 to 16 lines. New rigs are built higher out of the water than ones that were built previously, and old rigs were strengthened, according API.

And pipelines, which carry most of the oil and gas from the production platforms to the shore, now are equipped with redundant electric generation stations to ensure the power to the pumps will not be interrupted.

"This storm will be a good test for the [new standards]," said Landry.

8月跌4.4%,政局牽制動向,馬股9月走勢難測

在外資拋售和政治不穩定的影響下，馬股以下跌4。37%的姿態結束8月份的交易，表現中規中矩。展望9月份，分析員認為馬股走勢難測，而政局變動將會繼續牽制股市的走向。

根據統計顯示， 馬股8 月份共下跌4。37%，表現比印尼、新加坡、香港和上海標青，但是則較日本、曼谷和台北股市遜色。

達證券抽佣經紀陳玉麟表示，基于外資拋售和政治動盪，讓投資者的情緒深受影響，進而影響馬股在8月份的表現。

此外，種植股和原油價格回跌，也令馬股面臨雙重的打擊。

有鑑于種植股占了馬股的20%比重，同時，馬股也相當依賴這兩個領域，所以其對馬股的表現將產生很大的影響，尤其是IOI集團的表現。

針對9月份的走勢，陳玉麟表示，很難做出預測，因為一切都得看9月10日和16日這兩個日子。

他指出，10日是人民公正黨領袖安華被控上庭的日子，如果安華不被獲准保釋外出，股市料會下跌，而安華在16日的奪權是否成功，都會影響股市表現。

他也透露，如果安華成功奪權，股市就會大跌，但是也有可能在后期吸引外資進場。

先觀察再投資

「相較于泰國和菲律賓，大馬是以穩定的局勢來吸引投資者，但是現在的政治情況，卻讓馬股處于危險的位置。我們的國家現在很脆弱，不能再有其他風雨了。」

此外，分析員指出，09年財政預算案，也對9月份的走勢起著影響。

他們建議投資者在9月份進行投資時，要格外小心，並勸告投資者在觀察9月10日和16日的情況后，再做出投資決定。

市場正面看待預算案措施,馬股受激勵臨尾大漲

隨著09年財政預算案出爐，大馬股市在臨尾大漲，反映出市場正面看待新的預算案；綜指在收市前高漲30.04點或2.81%，重新衝破1100點大關，以1100.50點掛收，寫下5個月以來最大單日漲幅。

市場人士指出，政府宣佈減低個人所得稅、增加稅務回扣和各種有利於低收入群的措施，可有效地刺激消費者的開銷，而香煙稅的漲幅也符合預期，加上啤酒稅和博彩稅維持不變，促使相關股項在臨收市前大漲，再加上區域股市全線回彈，成為週五馬股大漲的主要推動力。

雲頂大漲推升綜指

由於博彩稅沒有調升，雲頂今日股價臨尾大漲，全天起55仙至5.85令吉，進而推高馬股。

基金經理張子敏接受《東方財經》詢問時表示，市場在臨尾回彈，反映出市場相當看好此次的預算案，且政府並不急於控制赤字，願意在國家發展上增加開銷。因此，他認為最新預算案整體上的規劃不錯，主要讓低收入群受惠，並鼓勵人民消費和刺激市場。

市場均認為，這是一個親民的預算案，尤其是對中低收入階層。這次的預算案沒有太大驚喜，不過，正所謂「沒有壞消息，就是最好的消息」，整體來說，還算是正面的推動力。

Areca資本基金經理黃德明指出，許多好消息的宣佈，以及沒有不好的消息，反映出這是一個不錯和惠民的預算案。不過，他仍對一些預測中的措施沒有宣佈，而感到失望，包括減低僱員公積金繳納率，及產業市場的一些利惠措施。

益資利基金經理莊勇仁指出，這次的預算案符合他的預測，對中低收入群的利惠最大，不過，也沒有什麼特別的驚喜。香煙稅的調高屬預料之中，反而啤酒稅和博彩稅維持不變，帶來了一些驚喜。

張子敏透露，新預算案的措施有不少符合市場預期，包括削減印花稅、個人所得稅、預扣稅等，唯一美中不足的，是沒有如市場預期般調整公積金繳納額，但政府還是以另一種方式讓低收入群獲益，即調低個人所得稅。

Is It Time to Sell Your Foreign Stocks?

The stock prices of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have cratered. The bottom of the worst housing slump since the Great Depression hasn't been reached. Fears of inflation are mounting.

Yet the dollar is rallying against foreign currencies. Despite recent gyrations, the U.S. Dollar Index, a futures contract reflecting the dollar's value against six major currencies, is up 9% since reaching a recent low on July 15. The turnaround is a major factor behind the stock market's 4% gain over the same period, along with the decline in oil prices.

What does the possibility of a stable-to-stronger dollar mean for the international stocks in your portfolio? Is it time to bail? A lot is at stake: Since 2003, some $490 billion in net new cash poured into international stock funds, vs. a net $208 billion for domestic stock funds, according to the Washington (D.C.)-based Investment Company Institute. And how about foreign bonds? Thanks to the weak dollar, U.S. investors in foreign bonds have enjoyed a currency-translation boost to their yields in recent years.

Thinking through the impact of the dollar's moves used to be simpler. The old maxim was that when the dollar was strong you should flee international securities, and when it was weak you should send money overseas. But hewing to simplistic truisms is hazardous in today's quicksilver global capital markets. Profiting from any turn in the dollar's fortunes requires a more nuanced strategy now -- and patience.

First of all, market veterans call for a reality check on this rally. Few expect the dollar to retrace years of losses anytime soon, and a 9% gain is tiny compared with the greenback's 50% slide against the euro and 30% tumble against the British pound over the past six years. Still, the global economic cycle may favor America's currency. While the U.S. slid into a downturn or even a recession about a year ago, only recently has growth faltered among other major industrial nations, especially in Europe. "We are picking up and they are slowing," says James W. Paulsen, chief investment strategist of Wells Capital Management.

The global business cycle should affect the gap between interest rates set by the world's central banks. There is a growing expectation that the difference in yields will narrow, especially between the U.S. and Europe. The Federal Reserve Board's benchmark rate is 2% while that of the European Central Bank (ECB) is 4.25%, and Europe could become a less attractive parking place for yield-hungry investors as the ECB combats economic weakness. "The dollar rally we have seen has been especially against the euro," says Bob Doll, vice-chairman and global chief investment officer of equities at investment management firm BlackRock. "The ECB's next move will be to lower rates, and I'm talking in months rather than years."

Yet even as the outlook for the dollar improves compared with the euro and currencies of other major developed nations, it could continue to depreciate against currencies of major emerging markets. That's an idea investors seem to be testing. The CurrencyShares Euro Trust is down 5.7% over the past three months, for example, while the WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real is up 4% and the CurrencyShares Mexican Peso Trust gained 4.1%. "Even if the decline against the euro is over, there may well be other non-European currencies that will appreciate against the dollar," says Burton G. Malkiel, an economics professor at Princeton University and author of the investing classic, A Random Walk Down Wall Street.

Why? Emerging-market growth rates dwarf those of the developed world. Their interest rates are higher, too. Over time a number of the countries will rely less on exports and more on consumers for growth. Take China: A mere 40% of its economy is driven by consumers, vs. 70% in the U.S. The move from an export-led economy to a consumer-driven one will encourage developing nations to lessen control over currency fluctuations and haltingly embrace floating exchange rates, which will allow their currencies to appreciate against the dollar.

Portfolio Tweaking

By this calculus, investors should comb through their developed world and emerging market securities and treat them differently, at least when it comes to the expected impact of currency on asset values. Long-term investors with fortitude should maintain exposure to fast-growing "frontier market" economies. But when it comes to Europe and Japan, portfolio tweaking could pay off.

Dollar strength would favor the U.S. stock market over foreign bourses. Multinationals, however, might find it tougher to outperform their smaller, more U.S.-focused brethren. The profits of U.S.-based global giants are by definition more exposed to foreign revenues. "The tailwind is morphing into a headwind," says Alec Young, international equity strategist at Standard & Poor's. But big-cap exposure to overseas economies varies greatly. Tech companies in the S&P 500-stock index get about 55% of revenues from abroad. It's 32% for large-cap financials. Even less exposed: railroads, retail food chains, and utilities.

A stronger dollar would have a bigger effect on foreign bonds. Simply put, dollar gains cut the value of interest and principal payments of foreign bonds when converted into dollars. That prospect spurred Ross Levin, head of Accredited Investors in Edina, Minn., to shift client money early this year from an unhedged foreign bond portfolio into a Pimco dollar-hedged mutual fund. "We wanted to stay in foreign bonds, but take out currency risk," he says. A beefier greenback also adds to the pressure on commodity prices, which are being hurt by slowing global growth. But, cautions Peng Chen, president of Ibbotson Associates, "long-term, the fundamentals of strong demand are still there, especially given demand from emerging countries."

炒股有一套,劍橋錄取他

英國劍橋大學等世界一流名校，23日在南京等地進行錄取考試，全中國共有13個考試中心的近150位優秀中國高中生應試。

據了解，劍橋憑借“炒股交割單”，錄取了一名16歲的南京男生。

劍橋和英聯邦名校遴選項目負責人張濤表示，注重學生的學業表現，只是英國名校選才的第一步。

通過綜合性的面試，一些筆試不占優勢卻有個性、有特長、有責任感的學生也是錄取對象。

張濤說，劍橋曾錄取南師附中江寧分校當年只有16歲的學生王天曉。

王天曉剛讀高中不久，筆試成績並不突出。

但他在面試時隨身帶著自己的炒股交割單，高一時爸爸給他1000美元（3385.77令吉），他賺了20%。

高二時爸爸給他1萬美元（3萬3857令吉），他賺到25%。

他在金融方面的潛質，讓劍橋決定錄取他。

供給料減少,商品行情反轉上攻

玉米及黃豆出現反彈，產量減少，導致美國庫存降到近5年低點。油價也因美國與俄羅斯關係緊張而反轉。Xstrata Plc關閉多明尼加的工廠，鎳價也翻揚。

商品歷來最慘烈的殺盤可能告一段落，甚至可能重演2006年標普500種指數GSCI指數大跌後，接下來17個月上漲1倍的舊事。但這次推升行情的動力是供給減少，而非需求增加。

花旗集團全球商品分析師艾倫哈克表示：「供給吃緊愈來愈引人注目，商品將不再是齊頭式上漲，而是各自表現。明年商品仍會上漲，部分商品甚至漲到後年。」

商品多頭行情已進入第7年，因中國及印度的需求，及農礦業供給中斷。原料價格自4個月低點反彈，可能帶動必和必拓獲利，提高Nestle SA的成本，刺激通脹，限制柏南克及特裡謝等中央銀行主事者，降息及歐美景氣成長的能力，油價比起逾3個月低點，已上漲3%。

委內瑞拉能源及石油部長拉美勒表示，石油輸出國家組織9月9日開會，可能會考慮減產，且美國汽油庫存減少。油價22日收報114.59美元，比7月11日147.27美元的紀錄，高點下跌22%。

聰明人用別人的錢賺錢，投資房地產，以小錢賺大錢？

投資房地產的好處就是可以把房地產抵押，以區區的20%甚至10%的成本，就可以獲得80%甚至90%的貸款，充份的發揮以小錢賺大錢的槓桿效應。也許你還看不到以槓桿效應錢生錢的「威力」，看了下列的分析你就不難明白了：

假如你用10萬令吉的現錢投資一項產業，1年後產業增值20%，那你只不過是賺取區區的2萬令吉。

但是，如果你以10萬令吉的成本，向銀行貸款90%，你就可以購買總值100萬令吉的產業。若是這些產業1年後也同樣增值20%的話，你的總回酬將是20萬令吉。

換句話說，以同樣的10萬令吉成本，現錢投資你就只賺得相等於20%的2萬令吉，但以槓桿效應向銀行借貸投資，你則可獲得高達200%的20萬令吉投資回酬。以相同的原理，來投資於收入型的產業，要是有8%租金回酬的話，以10萬令吉現錢購買一間產業，你每年就只有8千令吉的租金收入。但是向銀行借貸90%作大筆投資，則可讓你每年享有8萬令吉的租金收入。這就是向來許多「專家」非常強調：以小錢賺大錢，投資於房地業這個公開的秘密！

水能載舟，亦能覆舟

看了這些分析，你會有什麼反應？我想，如果你還未曾投資過房地產的話，你一定會有一股衝動，想馬上找一些本錢來投資於房地產。要是你真的想要投資於房地產的話，我想你也會盡本能向銀行借貸最頂限的貸款，以充份的發揮你的金錢效益，對嗎？

在你還未輕舉妄動作出決定之前，請先允許我向你潑一潑冷水，讓你清醒過來，冷靜的思考、分析、再作決定好不好？首先我必須提醒大家：「水能載舟，亦能覆舟」。那些專家朋友所告訴你，如何通過借貸，在產業界以小錢賺大錢，其重點不在於水，而是你是否深懂水性，並能好好駕駛你的船。

要是你2點都能充份掌握的話，當然更多的水能越讓你航駛自如，充份發揮你的才華。儘管如此，也還有不少的航海員在大風浪中沒頂，倘若你既不暗水性，又不懂行舟，更多的水，更大的海洋，對你而言是凶是吉，只有妳自己才知曉了。

我要當百萬富翁

要成為百萬富翁,面對失敗重新出發

天底下有許多事都是說易行難，一個錯誤決策、一個不當應對，都可能讓人和百萬身家擦肩而過。

因此，如何讓自己保持毅力，從容面對過程中的挑戰及挫敗感，才是最終關鍵。

神經語言程式學（NLP）及催眠治療課程導師尼克萊佛士接受《中國報》專訪時指出，有些人夢想過大，以致失敗時一蹶不振，無法重新出發。

“最大的問題，是這些跌倒的人並不懂得從失敗中迅速站起來。”

他指出，如何應對問題，以及擺脫挫折、重新恢復動力，都和個人潛意識里的信念息息相關。

尼克萊佛士指出，不管是創業還是透過投資致富，一般人潛意識中知道自己正用著血汗錢，因此一經挫折失去金錢，往往難以釋懷，不能走出陰影。

百萬富翁=美滿人生？

此外，夢想過大也會形成無形障礙，使人們害怕失敗，畏首畏尾不敢行動。

尼克萊佛士也是美國催眠治療師專業評審委員會（ACHE）指定講師及考試評審員。

他指出，要達到一個目標，例如成為百萬富翁，必須經過很多過程才能達到，在這個過程中，當事者必須自問：“我的夢想是否值得我這么做？”

他說，有些人只是向往更好的生活水平，即使未達錢財目標，只要生活素質已有所改善，也能取得滿足感。

宏願理財董事經理陳文博也強調，成為百萬富翁，不代表擁有圓融美滿的人生。

“財富只是一種工具，來完成人生不同階段目標，例如置產、兒女教育金、出國旅行及退休金等。”

他認為，每個人可以彈性定義自己的首桶金，因此如何定義“百萬富翁”並不是最重要的。

“最重要的，是能夠了解只要付諸行動，百萬夢其實不難圓。”

尼克萊佛士認為，是否擁有創造財富的正面潛意識，比錢財目標更重要。

“因為擁有正面潛意識的人一旦遇挫，可以更快爬起身、重新出發。”

他說，想法正面者會視挑戰過程為一種經驗或學習機會，且具備針對挑戰重新擬定對策、再出發的能力。

“這種正面潛意識是極具爆發力的，若可能將負面潛意識轉至正面，那不管在自我提升還是事業開發方面，都已是很大的突破。”

製造更大問題
勿合理化失敗

人的決定和行為，可能和大腦潛意識產生衝突，有些人會壓抑、刻意忽視問題所在。

尼克萊佛士指出，壓抑內心的矛盾，表面上已解決問題，實際上可能製造更大問題。

而且壓抑久了，矛盾只會一再加深，自己卻可能忘了問題根源，以致情緒找不到宣洩出口。

“一般人常透過責備，或找借口來合理化自己的失敗，藉此解釋為何自己不能致富。”

他提醒說，若用這些方式來減輕自己失敗的焦慮和壓力，將忽視問題根源，變相破壞致富機會。

尼克萊佛士指出，如果一個遇挫的人需要更長時間才能恢復元氣，或遲遲未能走出陰影，那就得從個人信念下手，探討當時人想法，及以對“事業有成”的定義。

他建議，若不能藉個人力量解決困擾，可尋求催眠或心靈治療師協助，藉由催眠重尋已被遺忘的記憶，以打開心結、縮短恢復時間。

創業打工異曲同工

多位接受訪問的百萬富翁，在創業或投資之初並非衝著百萬身家而來，他們都是邊實踐邊自我提升，逐漸累積第一桶金。

這說明，目標絕對可作為推動力，但得失心過重可能會得不償失。

此外，創業雖是許多人選擇的致富途徑，但不是唯一；更何況不是每個人都具備創業條件。

現實中，打工族未必和百萬身家絕緣。

一名不願具名打工皇帝就認為，要存得百萬現金，並沒有想像中困難。

這名工作經驗豐富、目前仍是打工族的百萬富翁，第一桶金主要是公積金儲蓄，沒有遺產或其他收入。

他的秘訣很簡單，就是做好預算和花費絕對不能超過收入。

他是在成家立室、37歲那年才開始真正儲蓄，而且他在購屋后很快就還清房貸，如今未欠分文。

這名打工皇帝今年已55歲，目前仍工作且持續儲蓄。

“要存得百萬未必得過度節儉，我和家人每年出國旅遊兩次，每週至少一次到餐館吃飯。”

但他提醒道，要保障財富，最大前提是不要把錢花在不實際的投資或被騙。

追求財富
先瞭解潛意識

創業、投資失敗的話，該怎么做才能擺脫陰影、重新奮鬥？

尼克萊佛士指出，要擺脫陰影，就得回歸最原始的目標及信念。

他透露，每人在尋求財富背后的目的才是致富關鍵，這包括了解心靈最深處、未獲認知的潛意識部分。

“每個人要的東西都不同，儘管目標相似，但信念可能有異，而且這種信念，可能是連自己都不察覺的一種潛意識。”

下意識影響奮鬥

他舉例說，一名銷售員擁有一套非常完整致富及成功計劃，除了具備高昂激勵士氣，也清楚銷售目標、聯繫網絡等的重要性。

但問題卻在實踐過程中出現了。

銷售員覺得他所做的一切已超出舒適水平，對成功的追求也出現矛盾想法。

尼克萊佛士指出，經過經過輔導治療才發覺，這名銷售員潛意識中，不認同自己常工作到深夜，犧牲太多個人時間。

他說，由于銷售員對成功的潛意識定義，是成功之際也擁有良好人際關係和個人空間，但現實中的日夜顛倒，讓他下意識無法認同也影響其奮鬥。

“因此認清潛意識中的障礙，確定自己能夠接受相關奮鬥模式，致富路上才能心無旁騖。”

富翁秘訣：自律

不管是打工還是做生意，如果無法保住賺來的錢，錢進錢出的后果，是一無所有！

《鄰家的百萬富翁》作者就發現，許多富翁都堅守“自律”原則，才得以保住百萬身家。

不少富翁不追崇奢侈品或容易貶值的物品，例如買車只買便宜的二手車。

因為這樣他們就能減少一筆支出，而可以善用這筆省下的資金來投資，提高回酬。

若無法在短期內大幅提高收入，至少你要掌握成功富豪們的秘訣，在理財路上遵守自律原則，量入而出。

Oil: Biggest drop in 17 years

Crude prices fall by largest dollar amount since 1991 as investors fear the decline in U.S. demand could spread overseas as Europe's economies slow.

NEW YORK - Oil prices plummeted Friday, erasing the previous session's spike, as the dollar strengthened and investors worried that a decline in demand will spread outside the United States.

U.S. crude for October delivery dropped $6.59 to settle at $114.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The drop in oil was the largest single-day slide in dollar terms since Jan. 17, 1991, when oil fell by $10.56. On that day, President George H.W. Bush withdrew oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve ahead of the first Gulf War.

But in 1991, oil was trading at just $32 a barrel, so the more than $10 slide in dollar terms represented a record 33% drop. Oil fell 5.4% Tuesday, which does not even crack the top 50 price declines in percentage terms.

Oil's second-largest slide on Friday comes a day after the second-largest gain on record. Crude futures soared $5.62 a barrel Thursday to rise above $121 a barrel.

"We're trending towards a lot of oil price volatility on the direction of the dollar," said Peter Beutel, an oil analyst with Cameron Hanover. "There are huge amounts of money involved, and the large moves have been based primarily on dollar strength."

Dollar rebounds: The dollar rose after a key measurement showed British economic growth stalled in the second quarter.

The U.K.'s gross domestic product between April and June showed zero growth, the country's statistics office reported Friday.

The economic weakness in Britain signaled that falling demand for oil due to high fuel prices could spread to Europe, according to Kyle Cooper, director of research with IAF Advisors in Houston.

"Fewer trucks delivering packages, fewer people going to work ... There's a very strong correlation between GDP growth and oil usage," said Cooper.

The U.K. report follows other reports this week showing weakness in the euro zone and Japanese economies, putting U.S. investment - and the dollar - in a more favorable light.

A stronger dollar makes crude more expensive for foreign investors, because crude futures are traded in U.S. currency. Rising dollar values also pull investor money out of oil, since many use crude and other commodities as a hedge against inflation.

Georgia-Russia: Oil rose Thursday on tensions between NATO and Russia over the nation's occupation of Georgia. Georgia contains several vital pipeline links that carry crude oil and natural gas between Europe and Asia.

But those tensions appeared to ease Friday.

"There was the potential for some type of action across the Georgian border and we just haven't seen anything," said Neal Dingmann, senior energy analyst with Dahlman Rose & Co.

Also easing supply worries, a BP-led consortium prepared to resume oil flow through the region's Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, a major oil link between Turkey and the Caspian Sea.

"We're still integrity testing," said BP spokesman Toby Odone, "We expect it will be back in normal operation next week."

U.S. gasoline demand: Falling demand for petroleum-based fuels in the United States has been the main force behind oil's fall from a record high of $147.27 in mid-July.

Demand for gasoline last week was about 9.5 million barrels a day, or 1.6% lower than it was last year, according to an Energy Department inventory report released Wednesday.

Drivers were also spending less time on the road in June, according to a second report from the Transportation Department last week.

Drivers will even cut back over the Labor Day weekend, according to a projection from motorist group AAA. The number of travelers avoiding cars and air travel, and using buses, trains, or other transportation will increase by 12.5% this year, AAA said.

National gasoline prices are down more than 42 cents a gallon from the record high set last month, according to the AAA's daily survey of service stations, falling below $3.70 a gallon.

With Oil Demand Down, Prices Are Leveling Off

Until recently, it seemed that oil prices could move in only one direction: up. But in the last few weeks, the great energy rally that kicked off at the beginning of the decade has shown signs of running out of steam.

A combination of weak economic growth, slowing demand and shifting perceptions has sent oil prices down 21 percent from last month’s peak. Prices have fallen in two of every three trading sessions this month despite hurricanes looming over the Gulf of Mexico’s offshore wells, a war in the Caucasus that threatens Caspian supplies and more violence in Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta.

Only a short while ago, such events would have sent prices still higher. But energy markets, which for years had focused mainly on risks to supplies, have suddenly started paying attention to the impact that high prices are having on consumers.

By any measure, oil prices remain high and have become increasingly volatile. Oil is up 19 percent this year and has been stuck above $100 a barrel since early March.

On Friday, prices dropped the most since 2004, falling 5 percent to $114.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A day earlier, they shot up by almost 5 percent.

“The market psychology has shifted dramatically,” said James Crandell, an energy analyst at Lehman Brothers. “It now clings to the bearish news that was shrugged off early in the year in the pursuit of higher prices.”

Energy specialists are split on where the market is headed. One camp argues that today’s slowdown is temporary and that global oil supplies will remain constrained for years. When growth picks up again, in this view, so will prices.

Another camp contends that the current slowdown heralds a lasting shift in consumption patterns as consumers trade their gas guzzlers for smaller cars and businesses find ways to use less energy.

Perhaps the biggest question is whether oil prices will drop enough to give consumers some relief, while at the same time remain high enough to call forth new supplies, spur investment in alternative fuels and encourage consumers to use energy more efficiently.

Oil prices have typically tended to stabilize for long periods — when adjusted for inflation, prices look like flat lines for years on end. In the 1990s, a period when supplies were plentiful, prices hovered around $20 to $25 a barrel. But it is unclear where today’s market will find stability, with forecasts of the near-term price ranging from $90 to $150 a barrel.

“The market is still trying to find an equilibrium,” said Michael Wittner, the global head of oil research at Société Générale, in London. He predicts oil will bottom at $105 a barrel in September, before rebounding next year to $120 as supplies remain tight. “Prices need to remain, quote-unquote, high, to continue to limit growth in demand.”

Oil consumption has been falling in all major industrialized countries, including the United States, Japan, Germany and Britain. Sales of big cars and trucks have plummeted, airlines have trouble filling their seats and drivers are making fewer trips.

Gasoline prices, which rose to a nationwide average of $4.11 a gallon last month, now average $3.69 a gallon, according to AAA, the automobile group. The prices have forced many consumers to cut their spending on other items.

Americans drove 12.2 billion fewer miles in June than in June 2007, a drop of 4.7 percent, according to the Department of Transportation. Between November and June, total miles driven dropped by 53.2 billion, the steepest decline registered in a century of data collection, said Doug Hecox, a spokesman for the department.

Gasoline demand is declining as a result. Consumption has fallen for 27 consecutive weeks and is down 2.5 percent since the beginning of the year, said Michael McNamara, the vice president of MasterCard Spending Pulse, who tracks retail gasoline sales nationwide.

“It’s really when prices surpassed the $3- to $3.15-a-gallon threshold that we began to see a steady erosion in demand and consumers changing their behavior,” Mr. McNamara said.

Now that gasoline is falling from its high, however, analysts are wondering whether that trend will turn around. The oil shocks of the 1970s and 1980s led to surging prices and sharp cutbacks in consumption. But they were followed by a long period of low energy prices, and as a result, consumption rose again.

“We’ve been there before, in the late 1970s, and the question is will we be there again if the price crashes,” said Lee Schipper, a transportation expert and visiting scholar at the University of California, Berkeley.

Because many developing countries subsidize their energy costs, preventing them from rising too much, falling demand in the industrial world will be more than offset by growth in emerging markets like China and the Middle East. Global oil consumption is still expected to grow by about 1 percent this year, or 790,000 barrels a day, according to the latest forecasts by the International Energy Agency. That is half of the rate of growth in demand during the 1990s.

“We still have not seen clear signs of slowing demand in the emerging-market economies; however, we believe these signs are still to come,” said Mr. Crandell, of Lehman. “It won’t be negative demand, but these countries will slow to a more restrained pace.”

Commodity Bulls Bump The Dollar

LONDON - Two influential personalities in the investment world made the case on Thursday that the recent dip in commodity prices was not bound to last and that metals from gold to platinum would soon continue their climb skyward. Jim Rogers and Warwick McKibbin may have a point: the dollar fell away from its rising trajectory for the second time this week, as commodities started jumping.

Light, sweet crude for September delivery rose to $116.73 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange Thursday morning. Gold, meanwhile, rose nearly 2.0%, to its highest price in a week, in morning trading in London, hitting $824.20 an ounce--though that was still well below the all-time high of $1,030.80 struck in March.

According to TradeTheNews.com, investment guru Jim Rogers said Thursday that the recent drop in commodity prices was a correction in a bull market and that they would continue to rise because of short supply. He added that he was mulling buying metals again. Last June, Rogers helped set up a share index that tracked the performance of companies dealing in commodities (rather than the commodities themselves). (See "Jim Rogers's New Way To Ride Commodities Boom.")

Warwick McKibbin agrees. The Australian National University economics professor and board member of the Reserve Bank of Australia seconded Rogers on Thursday, according to TradeTheNews.com, in remarking that fears that the commodity boom was coming to an end were overdone. He said growth and subsequent demand for metals and other raw materials from China and India would continue to support prices.

The commodities spike had a noticeable effect on the dollar in Thursday trading. The euro bought $1.477, up from $1.468 late Wednesday in New York. The greenback also fell by 1.0% against the Japanese yen, buying 108.79 yen in late trading in Asia on Thursday, down from 110.00 yen late Wednesday.

Adding to the downward pressure on the greenback are persistent worries about the health of America's financial sector, particularly of the mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In addition, a report in the Financial Times said Thursday that Lehman Brothers had tried to sell half its shares to China's CITIC Securities and the state-owned Korea Development Bank but that both investors had balked at the high price.

巴菲特索羅斯,看好能源股

原物料行情持續探底，卻沒有影響投資大師的選股策略，巴菲特和索羅斯有志一同。

本著看長不看短的原則，巴菲特和索羅斯一致看好能源股，例如波克夏在第二季就砸下8億1000萬令吉買電力公司，同時間索羅斯則以25億4000萬令吉大舉買進巴西石油。

擅長買進潛力股的全球首富巴菲特，投資組合一向受人矚目，巴菲特掌管的波克夏海瑟威公司，今年第二季購股金額高達39.8億美元（133億4597萬令吉），新投資的對象包括德州第二大電力公司NRG Energy，巴菲特共砸下8億1000萬令吉，買進324萬股。

加碼法製藥

分析師認為，巴菲特應該是看準能源股價跌幅夠深，已浮現價值，而且巴菲特習慣把資金放在保守產品上，因此他持續加碼能源產業的決定，一點也不讓人意外。

至于波克夏上一季申報持有的美國第二大煉油業者康菲石油，新申報卻對該公司的持股數量保密，可能是為了避免其他人跟進投資。

另外，波克夏在投資申報上也顯示，巴菲特增加法國製藥業者賽諾菲安萬特的持股，巴菲特加碼能源跟醫藥類的同時，卻減少消費性類持股，啤酒製造商安布公司的持股減少61%。

總計巴菲特上半年共投資55.1億美元（184億7645萬令吉）在股票上，遠比去年同期還少，這可能意味著巴菲特預期股市還會持續下跌。

有金融大鱷之稱的索羅斯也有志一同，根據索羅斯基金管理公司提交給美國證管會的報告，索羅斯砸下8.11億美元（27億1949萬令吉），大舉買進巴西國營石油巴西石油持股，投資比例高達索羅斯公司22%，是索羅斯第二季最大投資。

隱藏式投資,主權基金商品最大炒家

從經紀、交易商、及國會調查員所得的資料顯示，許多國家的主權基金，才是原材料的最大炒家。

美國《華盛頓郵報》（Washington Post）向處理華爾街投資銀行投資的經紀、資深交易商、以及國會調查者所做訪問，顯示負責為政府管理龐大投資基金的外國主權基金，是參與美國石油，以及包括玉米與棉花等其他重要商品買賣的最大炒家。

商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）曾于6月份致函國會，指調查顯示主權基金並非影響商品交易的一個重大因素。

但熟悉市場交易的消息人士，指CFTC並無察覺到這些外國基金，對商品市場的影響力與日俱增。

禍源亞洲

這主因是因為這些基金，多是透過未持有實體商品的交換交易商（Swap Dealer）參與投資，這些交易商通常是在未受管制的市場上交易，造成這種隱藏式的投資角色，不易被人發現。

據一間大型交換交易商透露，涉及商品交易的外國主權基金，非來自西亞的產油國，而是主要來自亞洲那些並無從產油中賺錢的國家。

數名美國民主黨國會議員稱，共和黨人領導的CFTC，並無利用他們的權力去壓制這些不受管制的活動，因為他們不想損害親共和黨，及具影響力的華爾街大公司。

CFTC發言人則表示，他們的數據顯示，基本的供求因素，而非金融演員，是影響油價上升及下跌的最主要因素。

但他們已下令交換交易商，公開他們的交易紀錄及披露更多信息，以顯示有關主權基金與其他金融演員不受管制活動的情況，這項調查報告將于下月中公布。

破華爾街紀錄,交易員花紅近10億

全球股市低迷，各大投資銀行都在瘦身裁員之際，華爾街一名星級交易員，卻獲公司以約23.4億港元（9億9422萬令吉）的巨額花紅挽留，令他成為美國金融界歷來最高薪的交易員，羨煞不少打工仔。

獲巨額花紅挽留的星級交易員是萊文森，38歲，2002年由投資銀行高盛跳槽到Fortress Investment Group LLC，只消6年時間，就與這家對基金的5名創辦人看齊，出任公司股東。

目前，他掌管的基金投資金額高達約686.9億港元（291億7261萬令吉），負責部門在全球有6個辦事處、170名員工。

Fortress出手這么闊綽，無非是要用錢來挽留他，以免他跳槽到其他對基金公司或自組公司，決定使出“金手銬”，以總值23.4億港元花紅來留住他，當中包括3100萬股股份。

我值這個價錢

這筆花紅，相當于華爾街去年最高薪的行政人員、美林主席塞恩約6.56億港元（2億7860萬令吉）年薪的3.5倍。

“我值這個價錢。”萊文森獲巨額花紅消息曝光后說。

他自言每天工作24小時，即使最近初為人父，他仍以公司業務為重，每天早上6時就回到公司辦公，不吃午飯，下午4時美國收市才去健身，2小時后亞洲開市，他又回到公司工作。

萊文森與妻子是紐約社交名流，兩口子最近才誕下首名孩子，但他夜半被公事多過被小寶寶吵醒。

他說：“5個月了，整晚寶寶在睡，但電話響個不停。”

Fortress對報道拒絕置評，但有股東指這筆花紅會令整體股數增加7%，分薄股東的利益。

UBS chiefs knew of rule breaches

Senior executives at UBS, the Swiss bank being investigated by US authorities, knew some of their bankers had acted in a way that meant they risked breaching American securities laws at least a year before the US inquiries began, a letter seen by the Financial Times shows.

The May 2006 letter, now in the hands of the US Department of Justice, was written by Peter Kurer, UBS chairman and then the bank’s general counsel, and copied to Marcel Rohner, then head of private banking and now group chief executive, as well as Lawrence Weinbach, a UBS director who sits on the board’s audit committee.

It was written to Bradley Birkenfeld, a former UBS banker at the centre of US inquiries into whether the bank helped its wealthy American clients evade taxes by transferring their money to European tax havens.

Mr Birkenfeld, who admitted this year to helping a billionaire US businessman evade millions in tax while at UBS, has been co-operating with the authorities.

It was not until May this year that the DoJ and the Securities and Exchange Commission revealed they were investigating the tax issue as well as claims that UBS bankers had advised US clients on investing in securities without obtaining the US registration legally required to offer such advice.

In the letter, Mr Kurer acknowledged he had received information from a whistleblower, who had drawn attention to the problems the bank faced because of the inadequate securities registration. Mr Kurer writes that the information prompted an internal investigation in which UBS interviewed 12 of its private bankers who had been dealing with wealthy American clients and he would be recommending procedural changes to management.

“I thank you for drawing my attention to this compliance issue,” Mr Kurer wrote. He added that in keeping with bank policy, the whistleblower “must not fear any retaliation”.

UBS officials stress the whistleblower referred only to possible breaches of securities law, and not the tax evasion issues being investigated. UBS also said Mr Kurer acted swiftly to tighten procedures after investigating the whistleblower’s allegations, and introduced measures to ensure the procedures were properly implemented and observed.

However, former members of the bank’s US offshore team say that in spite of these elaborate formal compliance procedures, bankers still faced enormous pressure to win business.

For example, the procedures that Mr Kurer introduced meant bankers faced a painstaking approval process before going to see customers in the US to ensure no laws would be broken.

But bankers were also told they should go to the US at least four times a year to meet existing clients, often in informal situations such as bank-sponsored arts or sporting events, that would double as business meetings and provided the opportunity to meet new customers.

UBS last November decided to close its offshore banking business for US clients after growing concerns about risks to the bank’s reputation in an ever-tougher regulatory climate.

Should I sue my adviser?

Probably not, even if you got bad advice. All the more reason to ask hard questions up front.

I am frequently asked by clients if they should sue their previous adviser. This question usually comes up right after I've shown them how badly their portfolio has performed - and pointed out that the high fees they were paying only transferred their wealth to others. The client sits across from me in shock and says that his old adviser never disclosed those fees, or that she misrepresented how risky the investments were. That's when I get the lawsuit question.

First, I always point out that I'm not licensed to give legal advice. But then I tend to discourage clients from suing. What they were sold was ugly, but probably not illegal. Here's why.

If my client still has disclosure documents, such as the investment advisory agreement and the prospectus, I ask him to bring them in. Lo and behold, the nasty stuff like surrender charges, investment risks and formulas for calculating guarantees is usually buried deep within one of these documents. No one reads all of this paperwork, which works in favor of advisers who'd rather you just listened to what they say.

Another reason I generally tell people that suing would be an uphill battle is the next document I show them: a statement they signed that says they read and understood all of the disclosures. Every firm selling stocks, funds and insurance products has a compliance department that I believe exists to protect the firm from its clients.

The final reason suing is so tough is that you probably signed an arbitration agreement, thus waiving your right to go to court. And according to a recent study by securities consultant Edward O'Neal and arbitration attorney Daniel Solin, your odds of success in securities arbitration are only about 50%. Even if you win, the award is typically a small fraction of what's requested, sometimes not enough to cover the cost of the suit.

My advice: Don't put yourself in a situation where you later have to ask, "Should I sue?" That means not investing in a financial product or doing business with an adviser unless you understand what you're buying and what you're paying in total fees.

Before signing your name, ask your adviser to write down on one page what he considers the most important things you should know. If he merely tells you to read the documents, you can bet he's hiding something.

How watching the Olympics can make us better investors

I have some important investment advice for you in the event your favorite athlete or team loses in the Olympics:

Take a break.

Don't even consider making changes to your portfolio for at least a day or two.

Why?

Because, if you're like most investors, you are prone to act irrationally when your favorite sports team loses.

I arrived at this conclusion not by watching sports enthusiasts at the local bar. Instead, it was reached by a rigorous academic study that appeared in the August 2007 issue of the prestigious Journal of Finance. The study, "Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns," was conducted by Alex Edmans, an assistant professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania; Diego Garcia, an assistant professor of finance at the University of North Carolina (Chapel Hill); and Oyvind Norli, an associate professor of financial economics at the Norwegian School of Management.

To isolate the role that mood plays in investing, the researchers analyzed the returns of a given country's stock markets immediately following losses of its national teams in international competition. They focused primarily on soccer matches in the World Cup, but they also studied cricket, rugby and basketball matches as well.

The researchers found, on average, that if a country's team loses in the World Cup elimination stage, its stock market the next day produces a return that is 38 basis points lower than normal. To be sure, 38 basis points might not seem that big of a deal, but from a statistical point of view it is huge. It is equivalent to an annualized loss of more than 60%.

The researchers could find no rational explanation for these lower returns. They therefore concluded that those diminished returns were caused by the "impact of sports results on investor mood."

To be sure, there is no direct or easy way of exploiting the study's findings to devise a trading strategy. But that's not the point.

Instead, the reason to bring this study up in the context of the Olympics is to remind us how much our psychology and mood can affect our investment decisions. And, needless to say, our moods are affected by a lot more than what's happening in the sports arena.

In my experience, few investors even recognize the role that their emotions play in their decision-making. When challenged, they are able to point to a litany of reasons, all well documented, for why their strategy is strongly based on a sound statistical foundation. But, most of the time, I still don't believe them.

That's because there are different types of reasons. On the one hand, there are the reasons that genuinely account for why we have decided to do something. And, on the other hand, there are the reasons that we turn to, after a decision has been made, to justify it to ourselves and others. Most of the investment reasons that I hear or read about are of the latter variety.

I am particularly attuned to this distinction between different types of reasons because I read the daily communications from nearly 200 newsletters. I can assure you that, at any given time, there is no shortage of reasons that can be marshaled for doing just about anything in the market.

For example, if I want to be bullish on the stock market right now, I can give you a long list of "good" reasons to be bullish. Yet, at the same time, I can give you an equally long list of equally good reasons to be bearish. The same has been continuously true since 1980, 28 years ago, when I began monitoring the newsletter industry.

In the face of these myriad conflicting reasons, it's all too easy to make decisions for reasons other than the ones we tell ourselves and others. It reminds me of a famous saying attributed to Adlai Stevenson, the Democratic candidate for president in the 1952 and 1956 elections. Mocking his political opponents, he would say: "Here is the conclusion on which I base my facts."

It would be one thing if investors were cynically engaged in this practice of fooling themselves. But my wife, a clinical psychologist, assures me that most of the genuine reasons for our behavior are unconscious to us -- like dumping our holdings following the loss of our favorite sports team.

You might think that the answer to all this is just to throw up your hands. But it isn't. The far better solution, in my opinion, is to pick a mechanical strategy and then adhere to it with discipline and patience. That way you are prevented from doing something for emotional reasons.

If you take this investment lesson to heart, then maybe watching the Olympics will end up making us better investors after all.

Are you ready for the counter-trend commodity bounce?

Investors have finally identified a few lights at the end of the tunnel, and it's their sincere hope they're not affixed to the front of a train.

The two most popular myths in the marketplace are that lower crude and a stronger dollar are both equity-positive. Perception is reality, we know, but perception doesn't always prove true.

In fact, the difference between the two -- the thin layer between what is and what's perceived to be -- is where profitability is found.

Pundits are quick to point to the decline in Texas Tea as the recent upside equity catalyst, but few have discussed the demand destruction that is manifesting as a function of slowing global growth.

Looking back, the correlation between the S&P 500 and crude oil is -0.041 over the past 10 years.

In other words, arguing that lower crude is a causation of higher stock prices has no historical standing despite the tick-for-tick action we've witnessed in recent months.

It just so happened that the crude bubble popped at precisely the same time stocks bounced from massively oversold levels.

It was a heck of a coincidence. Then again, maybe it wasn't.

The other widely held conventional wisdom is that a stronger dollar will help stocks sustain a better bid. Using the past six years as our guide, that's completely backward.

We've spoken about "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" for a long time.

We touched on it as we listened to Thunder and Lightning.

We revisited it when we watched Bullets over Broadway.
We contemplated it as we weighed at Our Wishbone World.

And we drove it home when we explored the Anatomy of the Recession.

The government created massive money supply on the back of the tech bubble to keep balls in the air and bubbles afloat. That crushed the value of the greenback and jacked asset classes -- including crude -- across the board.

Policy makers solved one problem by spurring stocks higher, but created another as the debt bubble built. A six-year snapshot of the S&P, commodities and the dollar index illustrates these points.

It's dangerous to blindly believe that a stronger dollar will be positive for asset classes but, as we've seen with the knee-jerk equity reaction to lower crude, timing is everything when it comes to navigating financial markets.

I don't profess to know the tipping point, but we must remain conscious of the road signs, particularly given that the dollar recently violated the downtrend that's been in place since 2002.

The deflationary writing seems to be on the wall. How we get there is an entirely different discussion.

Setting up for the counter-counter trend trade

The last few months have been a wild ride for the world's largest reality show and to understand where we're going, we must appreciate how we got here.

We asked aloud if the big-picture blues were priced into the financials as they dangled in the abyss on July 16th.

We monitored the action through multiple time frames, paying particular attention to the potential for a bear market bounce.

We dared ask if Hanky Panky was operating behind the scenes with an agenda of lower oil and higher equities into the election. And we mused that a perceived recovery could conceivably precede the storm.

As our financial destination pales in comparison to the path that we take to get there -- and we're only as good as our last trade -- I wanted to update my posture with the following thoughts.

As crude toggles towards $110 and the S&P eyeballs resistance into 1330-1350, we could be setting up for a reversal of recent fortune in both the energy and equity markets, at least for a trade.

The technical construct is seemingly offering serendipitous signs.

Crude has near-term support at $110 a barrel.

Equities are approaching the downtrend that connects the lower highs in the S&P that have been in place since October.

Putting one foot in front of the other, I peeled out of my upside S&P exposure into S&P 1310 on Monday and built a laundry list of potential "counter-counter-trend plays."

They included United States Oil Fund calls (with defined risk under $110), airline puts (such as Continental into $20), American Express puts (into resistance at $40) and Transocean Inc. and Weatherford International calls.

Where you stand is a function of where you sit, and to be sure, active trading isn't for everyone. There are powerful agendas in play to get equity markets higher into the election as policy makers attempt to steer a market infected by many years of financial engineering.

Those structural risks are why credit markets continue to flash warning signals that aren't readily apparent in equity markets. You always want to see both sides of every trade, and now more than ever, it's incumbent on us to do just that.

We'll get to the other side of this spooky ride as a function of time and price.

When we do, opportunities will be plentiful for those properly positioned and proactively prepared. The goal is to get there with our capital and sanity intact. Risk management over reward chasing is the mantra of choice as we find our way.

USDA raises corn estimates on 'ideal' weather

Farmers are on pace to produce the second largest corn crop and fourth largest soybean crop in history, which may lead to lower prices for the key grains, the government said Tuesday.

In its first estimates this year based on actual field visits and farmer surveys, the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its estimate of corn production and said "nearly ideal" weather has helped Midwestern farmers recover from June's devastating floods.

That recovery is expected to lead to lower prices for corn, soybeans and wheat. That may provide some relief to meat producers who use corn and soybeans for feed, for makers of corn-based ethanol and maybe even for shoppers at supermarkets.

The department forecast that farmers will harvest 12.3 billion bushels of corn, up more than 570 million bushels from last month's estimate of 11.7 billion. That's down 6 percent from last year's record crop of 13.1 billion bushels, but 17 percent above the 2006 harvest.

Average corn prices this year are expected to drop to $4.90 to $5.90 per bushel, down 60 cents from last month's forecast of $5.50 to $6.50.

Corn prices soared to record levels near $8 after the floods, the worst to hit the Midwest in 15 years. But cooler, wetter weather since then will boost corn yields to 155 bushels per acre, up from last month's estimate of 148.4, the department said.

Corn prices have already dropped to almost $5 per bushel, though that is still higher than in 2006, when a bushel cost $2.

The department has lowered its estimate for soybeans a bit, to 2.97 billion bushels from 3 billion last month.

Still, soybean prices are also expected to fall to $11.50 to $13 per bushel, down 50 cents from $12.00 to $13.50 last month, the department said.

High grain prices have virtually eliminated profits for chicken and beef companies this year. Springdale, Ark.-based Tyson Foods Inc., the world's largest meat company, said last month that its third-quarter profit fell by 90 percent due to higher feed prices.

Pilgrim's Pride Corp. the nation's largest chicken producer, said July 29 that it swung to a loss of $52.8 million, from profit of $62.6 million in its third quarter due to higher prices.

Ethanol producers such as Archer Daniels Midland Co. are also affected. VeraSun Energy, a Brookings, S.D.-based ethanol producer, delayed the opening of a plant until late July due to high corn prices.

The department raised its estimate of the amount of corn that will be used for ethanol production to 4.1 billion bushels, up from last month's estimate of 3.95 billion.

The department also slightly boosted its forecast of wheat production by 2 million bushels, to 2.462 billion, and projected that wheat prices will average $6.50 to $8, down 25 cents from last month.

Oil traders and short sellers reach crossroads

Since the rule has been in place, Bank of America Corp. is up 81%, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. is up 41%, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is up nearly 10%.

SEC Chairman Christopher Cox said naked short positions "turbocharge" an environment in which false information may ruin a company that's already under threat from a "distort and short" campaign.

So, on July 15, the SEC attempted to halt a series of deep price declines in financial stocks by outlawing the practice of taking short positions without actually locating and borrowing the shares.

The rule, which was extended July 30, will expire Tuesday night, but it probably won't be long before a more permanent rule is in place. The comment and drafting period aimed toward making a permanent rule is expected to begin within two weeks, said SEC spokesman John Nester.

The emergency rule may have worked, but it wasn't fair. It protected some banks but left others such as Wachovia Corp. at the mercy of these distorters and shorters. It also wasn't fair to short sellers, who, despite the SEC's characterizations, were pursuing a perfectly legal trading strategy only to find the rules changed midgame.

"Naked shorting was ever an issue with the 19 stocks covered by the SEC emergency order," said Eric Newman, portfolio manager at TFS Capital. "Creating uncertainty was the only effect of the order, and this served to artificially buoy the markets as short sellers covered their positions. Even without extending or expanding the emergency order, this uncertainty will remain."

In crafting the new rule, the SEC should make it broad enough that everyone is playing by the same rulebook. The commission should also remember that the market, not the government, decides a company's value each day.

Speculators exit

What happened to the global demand that was fueling record oil prices?

You remember: The world, driven by the hothouse economies of Brazil, China, India and Russia, was consuming oil at such a rate that the price of light sweet crude was going to soar to $200 by July 4.

For a while, it looked like it might happen, if not on Independence Day then by the end of the summer. Oil hit $147.20 in the Nymex pits on July 11. It sputtered and has been in close to a free fall ever since, losing 21% over that span.

Now, the expectation is that oil will sink to $100 a barrel.

So what's changed? Not demand. It's still creeping along. The world will use 1.1% more oil next year, about the same growth rate as this year and the year before, according to the International Energy Agency. China's share is growing but at about the same 6% rate it has been for the last four years, IEA estimates.

Supply hasn't changed. Even if offshore drilling becomes a reality, it's unlikely to have a profound effect on supply, and it won't happen soon. Many experts say such drilling isn't even necessary. After all, there is no oil shortage, just higher prices.

Could it be the end of speculation? As we pointed out in May, between $100 billion and $120 billion in new speculative money entered the energy markets during a three-year span ending in 2006, according to a congressional report. Investment in commodity index funds surged more than 500% to $80 billion during the same period. Hedge funds do 55% of derivatives trading, according to a study last year by Greenwich Associates.

Fearing a top, a lot of that money has pulled out or gone short. But don't tell that to those who say big oil companies and global growth are to blame. They seem to think demand is coming from a very specific region: Fantasyland

土著金融25億失信醜聞案

有人想幹掉我 羅連揭港坐牢時被隔離

轟動一時的1983年香港土著金融25億令吉失信醜聞案，該金融公司前主席羅連埃米奧斯曼（Lorrin Esme Osman）在倫敦作出驚人揭露，他表示在香港服刑期間，有人想干掉（殺害）他！

這位前金融家在倫敦接受大馬英文《太陽報》訪問時揭露：“我在香港赤柱監獄服刑時，完全與其他囚犯隔離，因為監獄當局擔心有人要干掉我。”

羅連因為土著金融當年發生25億令吉鉅額款項失信案牽累，前后在英國監獄及香港赤柱監獄坐牢7年。

他回憶說，當年他被控上法庭時，當局也擔心他被暗殺，令他穿上避彈衣出庭。

香港土著金融是大馬土著銀行的子公司，當年發生鉅額失信案后，大馬土著銀行母公司曾委派該銀行助理總經理加里爾，從吉隆坡赴香港稽查土著金融醜聞，結果惹來殺身之禍，他到香港調查失信案期間遭人暗殺。

羅連憶述，在英國服牢刑期間，英國當局也把他與其他囚犯隔離，更將他列為A級囚犯，即可對公眾、政府及警方造成巨大威脅的甲級囚犯。

“有段時期，他們（監獄當局）把我與恐怖分子關在同一牢房。”

只有女兒深信清白

羅連埃米奧斯曼指出，1983年土著金融失信案被揭發后，他受牽連入獄，當年只有12歲的女兒相信他是無辜的。

羅連憶述：“當年女兒只有12歲，她相信父親是清白的。”

他說，女兒如今已30多歲，事隔25年，他與女兒見面時，也鮮少談起這樁往事。

他認為，如果繼續將過去不愉快的事掛在嘴邊，只會使自己繼續受折磨。

“但是，如果有人要求重提往事，我覺得無所謂。”

“政府不會歡迎我”
羅連無意返馬

出生於檳城的香港土著金融前主席羅連埃米奧斯曼指出，他並不渴望返回祖國馬來西亞。

他說，在大馬雖然有很多朋友，但他沒有必要返回大馬。

“如果朋友要見我，可到倫敦來找我相聚，我回去大馬有點‘不符眾望’。”

今年76歲的羅連，於1931年出生於檳城，中學時期在亞羅士打求學，高等教育則於蘇丹阿都哈密學院畢業。

畢業后，他獲得獎學金到英國劍橋學院修讀法律系，之后轉入金融界，並在1980年代出任香港土著金融主席。1983年土著金融爆發失信醜聞，他被判入獄7年。

出獄后，羅連目前定居英國倫敦，他在倫敦接受《太陽報》訪問時，被問及是否有想念家鄉─馬來西亞時，這么回答。

他也認為，大馬政治人物（政府）並不歡迎他回國。

“他們認為，我返回大馬會給他們帶來麻煩。”

出小說揭露事實

經歷1983年轟動一時的香港土著金融失信案的羅連指出，他打算出小說，將土著金融失信案編成小說故事。

他說，土著金融失信事件中，有很多事實並不能夠坦蕩蕩公開。

“如果我出傳記，就無法將所有（土著金融失信案）事實公開，因此，我會選擇出小說，將全部事情寫出來。”

羅連接受《太陽報》訪問時，受詢及會否將一生經歷與際遇編成傳記時，這么回答。

資料庫

大馬最大宗財經欺詐案

香港土著金融丑聞，是大馬有史以來最大財經欺詐案，涉及款項高達25億令吉。

1983年初，香港的佳寧集團宣佈其屬下3間公司－－佳寧置業、維達航業和其昌人壽火水保險的保險暫停交易，理由是佳寧集團週轉不靈。

佳寧集團主席，是大馬出生的陳松青。該集團財務出問題，首當其沖的是香港土著金融，因為它貸出大筆款項給佳寧。

香港此一事件，立刻越洋在大馬引起極大震撼，朝野要求深入調查。

不久，許多內情逐步被揭開來，不正常鉅款貸款令各界吃驚。1983年10月20日，土著銀行助理總經理查利爾被派往香港，調查貸款事件。令人震驚的是，他卻在香港遭人暗殺。

同年10月4日，佳寧集團主席陳松青及董事何桂全，在香港受控發表錯誤與誤導性聲明。一星期后，土著金融及香港INTER-ALPHA ASIA向高庭申請庭令，要佳寧收盤。

大馬有關當局於1985年1月2日發表報告，指有6人在香港土著金融醜聞中涉嫌貪污。他們是1.土著金融前主席羅連奧斯曼；2.前董事拿督莫哈末哈欣山蘇丁；3.前高級總經理萊士沙尼曼博；4.前總經理依布拉欣查化；5.前助理總經理享利陳；6.前途商艾力周。

報告也指依布拉欣查化和陳松青已經觸犯大馬反貪污法令及香港相同法律。

土著銀行和土著金融終在1985年1月17日採取行動，入稟吉隆坡高庭，起訴土著金融前主席羅連，要求法庭宣判后者償還在貸款中獲得的2700萬余令吉利益。

1985年12月10日，羅連和土著金融前董事哈欣山蘇丁在倫敦被捕，當局準備把他們引渡到香港，面對欺騙和貪污的罪狀。同時，香港警方也在香港逮捕了陳松青，山蘇丁1986年在倫敦地庭認罪，后被引渡到香港受審，被判10年刑期。

而羅連為了避免被引渡到香港，在倫敦展開長達7年的申請人身保護令的法律斗爭，最后被引渡回香港，6月間對同謀欺騙的指控，俯首認罪，被香港高庭判監1年。

較后針對他的其余15項控狀也被撤銷。

此外，前佳寧主席陳松青，於1996年9月在香港高庭對涉及香港的馬來西亞土著金融有限公司在佳寧集團倒閉前給予佳寧2億3800萬美元（馬幣5億9500萬令吉）貸款騙案認罪之后，被判入獄3年。在監禁的3年刑期，陳松青以健康為由在伊莉莎白醫院羈留病房服刑。當時，前財政部長東姑拉沙里也被高庭傳召出庭供証。

拉益士沙里曼在1995年承認自己犯了兩項詐騙案，從1981年至1983年，欺騙土著金融的2億3800萬美元。他在香港法庭被判監禁5年。

Wall Street bonuses expected to tumble

Consultant firm projects bonuses in financial sector to sink in 2008 on credit problems, decline in business, and mounting layoffs.

NEW YORK - Looks like Wall Street bankers can kiss those fat bonuses goodbye this year.

Some bankers' bonuses will be slashed by nearly half in 2008, and most can expect a 15% to 25% reduction from last year's levels, according to a recent projection from compensation consultancy firm Johnson Associates.

Johnson Associates expects the big wigs to give up the most, with bonuses of senior firm managers at investment banks tumbling 35% to 45% from 2007 levels. With the public scrutinizing deep-pocketed CEOs when most Americans are penny pinching, shareholders may not stand for executives taking home millions while their companies lose billions, the consultancy firm said.

Other staffers at investment banks could see their extra compensation sink 20% to as much as 30%.

Hedge fund managers and commercial and retail bankers' bonuses could be 15% lower, while real estate brokers may have to take home 10% less than last year.

That's because banks have experienced "a fundamental change in business," weighing on their results, according to the consultancy firm. The subprime mortgage meltdown and ensuing credit crisis have hampered banks from engaging in their core lending businesses. As a result, layoffs, write downs and huge losses have mounted for the industry, and stocks have been hammered.

Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Wachovia and many others have reported staggering losses and took billion of dollars worth of writedowns because of bad mortgage bets. When the final quarterly results are tallied, the financial sector is expected to report total profits of just $8.9 billion in the second quarter, down 85% from earnings of $61.3 billion a year ago.

Recently the meaty bonuses that bankers had become accustomed to began to shrink. Wall Street bonuses sank 4.7% in 2007 as firms' impressive results became impressive losses and 2008 looks to like it might be much worse.

Greenspan warns of more bank bail-outs

More banks and financial institutions could end up being bailed out by governments before the credit crisis is over, Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, warns in an article in Tuesday’s Financial Times.

However, Mr Greenspan cautions that a heavy-handed regulatory response to the crisis would do more harm than good because it would depress global share prices. He worries that governments, already troubled by inflation, might try to reassert their grip on economic affairs.

“If that becomes widespread, globalisation could reverse, at awesome cost,” he says.

The former Fed chairman says this financial crisis is a “once or twice a century event deeply rooted in fears of insolvency of major financial institutions”.

Highlighting the examples of Northern Rock in the UK and Bear Stearns in the US, he says: “There may be numbers of banks and other financial institutions that, at the edge of defaulting, will end up being bailed out by governments.”

Mr Greenspan says this “insolvency crisis” will end only when home prices in the US begin to stabilise.

He says that “later this year” suppressed housing starts will feed through into a significant decline in home completions, allowing for a “rapid rate of liquidation of the inventory glut”. But this “assumes that current levels of demand for housing hold up”.

Mr Greenspan says the performance of world stock markets will be crucial in determining how well the financial system holds up in the interim, and to banks’ ability to recapitalise themselves.

He says a key determinent of global equity prices is the rate at which investors discount future cash flows, and this in turn is influenced by the degree of market capitalism and globalisation.

Banks renew plea for expanded short sale rule

WASHINGTON - A banking group has renewed its plea to the Securities and Exchange Commission to broaden a rule aimed at curbing abusive short selling and market manipulation.

The American Bankers Association, a trade group which represents banks of all sizes, said on Thursday that distort-and-short campaigns push stock values below what market and bank conditions warrant.

"Bank customers frequently - and incorrectly - equate significant drops in bank stock prices with safety of bank deposits," Sarah Miller, an ABA senior vice president, said in a letter addressed to the SEC.

"At a time, when the economy is clearly under stress, the commission has a responsibility to assure that destructive practices such as abusive naked short selling are stopped," said the letter dated August 7.

Currently the stocks of mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as 17 major Wall Street firms such as Lehman Brothers are covered by an SEC emergency order.

That order, which expires August 12, requires investors to pre-borrow shares before executing a short sale and to deliver the securities by the settlement date.

The SEC has said it will consider crafting a rule to crackdown on abusive short selling across the broader market.

Short selling is a legitimate investment strategy that can keep stocks from becoming overvalued. Naked short selling occurs when an investor sells stock that has not yet been borrowed.

Market makers have been exempted from the pre-borrow requirement to ensure trading in the 19 stocks remains liquid.

When an investor fails to deliver the securities by the settlement date, some, such as the ABA, consider this indicative of abusive short selling.

ABA said it reviewed failure-to-deliver data through March 31 for a small sampling of super regional and community banks and found that the volume has grown.

The industry group said the same data showed that a spike in fails-to-deliver was accompanied by significant stock drops that were not all attributable to market or bank-specific conditions.

"Based on what we are hearing from our members... we suspect that the volume of (fails-to-deliver) has only continued to grow, perhaps dramatically," Miller said.

NY stock-swindler's plea in faked suicide delayed

WHITE PLAINS, N.Y. - A hedge-fund swindler accused of faking his own suicide tried to plead guilty Wednesday for going on the lam, but his case was postponed for six weeks after he told the judge that his drug therapy was affecting his ability to think clearly.

If his guilty plea is ever accepted, Samuel Israel III, 49, could have as much as 10 years added to his 20-year sentence for bilking investors out of hundreds of millions of dollars.

Israel tried to plead guilty before a federal magistrate judge Wednesday morning, but she refused and an afternoon session with U.S. District Judge Kenneth Karas was scheduled.

Karas asked Israel several questions meant to make sure that a defendant entering a guilty plea knows what he is doing. When Karas asked about medications, Israel said he was being weaned off the painkiller fentanyl — which had been prescribed after several back surgeries — with methadone.

When the judge asked him to rank his clear-mindedness on a scale of 1 to 100, Israel, wearing an untucked brown T-shirt and a salt-and-pepper beard, said, "About 70 percent." He professed his desire to go ahead with the plea, saying, "I certainly can understand what's going on here."

"I would not say I'm guilty of something because I'm drugged up if I'm not guilty," Israel insisted. But he also said he was "a little shaky."

Karas said, "Seventy percent is not a number that makes me feel comfortable," and Israel's lawyer, Barry Bohrer, acknowledged that he would not want to try a case in front of jurors who were 70 percent clear-minded.

The parties agreed to return to court Sept. 16, when the withdrawal from fentanyl should be complete.

Israel disappeared June 9, the day he was supposed to report to a federal prison hospital in Ayer, Mass. He left his SUV on a bridge north of New York City with the words "Suicide is Painless" etched into the dust on the hood.

He then took off in an RV and apparently spent the next few weeks at a Massachusetts campground while police and federal agents, not fooled by the fake suicide, searched for him. While he was missing, his girlfriend, Debra Ryan, was arrested and charged with aiding and abetting his failure to surrender. Her case is pending.

On July 2, Israel drove up to a police station in Southwick, Mass., on a motor scooter and surrendered. He was returned to Manhattan, and the next day a furious judge ordered him to forfeit his $500,000 bail.

Israel told that judge he had tried to commit suicide for real after becoming a fugitive but it didn't work "and I realized God didn't want me to do that and I turned myself in."

Fed leaves rates alone for second straight meeting

WASHINGTON - For a second straight meeting, the Federal Reserve has decided to remain on the sidelines and leave interest rates alone. In the opinion of many economists, that stance may prevail not only for the rest of this year but well into 2009.

The thinking is that the Fed doesn't want to cut interest rates further because of concerns about inflation. However, at the same time, the majority of Fed officials don't want to start raising interest rates because the economy is still hobbled by mounting job losses, a prolonged housing slump and a severe credit crisis.

The Fed cited both worries about inflation and weak economic activity in the statement it released after Tuesday's meeting explaining its decision to leave its target for the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, unchanged at 2 percent.

The Fed may not have moved interest rates on Tuesday but it certainly moved Wall Street. Stocks, already soaring, extended their advance, with the Dow Jones industrial average finishing the day up 331.42 points, or 2.87 percent. It was the biggest one-day gain for the Dow since April 1.

Investors were cheered not only by relief that the central bank did not signal that rate hikes were imminent but also by a continued drop in crude oil prices, which fell as low as $118 a barrel during the day and are now down $28 from levels seen on July 11.

The lower oil prices not only help motorists when they fill up — gasoline has fallen as well in recent weeks — but also help the Fed by relieving inflation pressures.

In a brief statement explaining Tuesday's decision, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues said the central bank is still concerned about the weak economy and the dangers posed by inflation.

"Although downside risks to growth remain, the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the committee," the Fed said, splitting the difference between the two opposing forces battering the economy.

Analysts said the bottom line message from the statement is that the Fed doesn't plan to make any changes in rates any time soon.

"Unless something really weird happens, I don't see the Fed moving before the November election," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York.

Many economists believe that the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, will post moderate growth of around 2 percent in the current July-September quarter, helped by consumers continuing to spend the rebate checks sent to 130 million households. But activity is expected to plunge significantly in the final three months of this year and early in 2009 as the impact of the rebate checks wears off.

Wyss said he is looking for GDP to actually shrink in both the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, fulfilling the standard definition of a recession as back-to-back quarters of negative GDP.

However, Wyss looks for growth to start rebounding next spring as the problems related to housing begin to lessen. It is then that he believes the Fed will start raising interest rates as it turns its attention to making sure a rebounding economy doesn't ignite inflation.

The November presidential election is another reason many economists believe the Fed will prefer to keep rates unchanged at its next two meetings on Sept. 16 and Oct. 28-29.

"The Fed doesn't like to be in the spotlight during the heat of a presidential campaign," said David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Advisors. "I think they will prefer waiting now until they can get a better view of how the economy is unfolding and see if financial markets become less fragile."

'Rogue trader' assistant probed

Jerome Kerviel's assistant has become the second person to be probed in the Societe Generale rogue trader scandal.

Thomas Mougard has been placed under formal investigation for complicity in introducing fraudulent data into a computer system, say officials.

This gives judges time to pursue the investigation, but will not necessarily lead to a trial.

Societe Generale alleges Mr Kerviel lost 4.9bn euros ($7.6bn; £3.9bn) making unauthorised trades.

An internal report by SocGen found "signs of internal complicity' by Mr Kerviel's assistant.

Mr Kerviel himself is currently free on bail and is under investigation for breach of trust, computer abuse and falsification.

He has denied doing anything wrong and claims that the bank knew what he was doing but was happy as long as he was making money.

U.S. to agree insider trading probes revamp soon: report

A U.S. overhaul of insider trading investigations is due to be agreed as early as this week as regulators address growing concerns about illegal activity on global markets, the Financial Times reported Sunday, citing people involved in the talks.

The plan is likely to be submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which will remain the main markets watchdog responsible for enforcing federal securities laws, the newspaper said.

However, the new system would reform the way stock exchanges handle cases they refer to the SEC, the newspaper said.

Under the proposed measure, the nine U.S. stock exchanges that now monitor insider dealing will cede their authority to two bodies, the New York Stock Exchange's regulatory arm and the Financial Industry Regulator Authority (FINRA), which oversees broker-dealers, the newspaper reported.

The SEC, NYSE and FINRA did not immediately return calls seeking comment.

This shift to a more centralized system should lead to faster and more efficient oversight of illegal activity at a time when the potential for abuse is becoming more widespread, the newspaper said, citing people involved with the talks.

股匯震盪，政治需穩

國際著名的信用卡公司的調查顯示，大馬和其他98年受金融危機沖擊的國家都面對極為嚴重的「消費信心」低靡現象。此調查指出，大馬人民的「消費信心指數」比1998年馬幣危機發生時更低。

簡言之，大馬人民對前景更憂慮，所以不願意多花錢或多消費。

對于一些較低收入者來說，他們沒有余力多消費，因為基本的生活費用如食物和交通等難應付，手上一點儲蓄和股票或基金投資也尚未回升，豈可不擔憂？

以今天的形勢來看，大馬人民或許要更實際的去面對以下可能出現的趨勢：

（一）全球經濟大部份正邁入衰退或低成長。美國的反貸及金融風暴已緩和，但是消費人的能力和信心都有問號，其入口大幅減少，已經打擊了大馬和中國等輸出國。歐盟多數國家也開始了低成長和衰退。

可預見的是：這兩三年，大馬不能依靠大量電子電器出口來支持高成長，檳州等傳統電子工業區，或面對多輪的裁員困境。

1998年則相反，美國興旺，大馬出口大增，所以失業率也不高。中小廠因馬幣率偏低，出口生意大好，抵銷了國內負面沖擊。這次慘了，國內外的「行情」都差，所以人民面對更大沖擊。普遍上因為物價高升，許多經濟活動放緩更令市場收縮，放賬易收賬難，比1998年更慘！商家必須「節流」和謹慎，以免陷入周轉困境。

（二）全球股市大波動，尚未回彈。許多商家的投資受困。大型投資基金及公積金等難見高回酬，派息必減，更加打擊消費意願。

股市波動 困擾投資

大馬市場上的各種基金總投資不下3000億令吉，暫時受困，豈可不令小投資者心寒而減少消費意願？看來，大馬經濟重振的一大環將會是股市。

以目前的「政治亂象」來看，如果巫統和回教黨的合作不能盡快完成和宣佈，國內外投資者，不會冒冒然沖入股市撿便宜貨。

（三）美元止瀉資金穩，近日已看到美元形勢回穩，未出現如一些分析員所說的「大貶值」。

美元為浮動匯率，大幅上下不算貶值。這幾年來，美元逐步下降，並不是突然貶值，更重要的是，美國最大債幣商Pinco（資產過3萬億美元）的分析師指出：歐元比美元「超值」近30%之譜，這意味著，美元或將大力回彈，不再滑跌。

這可能是全球最重要的經濟訊息，全球的原產品中的石油，糧食等都以美元交易，美元漲，石油等商品價格必相應下跌。因此，可預見的是：這些商品大泡沫正逐步爆破，原油從高處的每桶147美元，在短短2個星期降了近15%之多，影響所至，連棕油價也大瀉至每噸三千大關。

基于以上的分析，大馬面對的是國外股匯大波動的沖擊。每個因素都可左右大馬國內的投資氣氛，尤其是投資意願。

試想，面對許多挑戰，如果大馬的政局繼續亂象橫生，就算國陣政權再穩，許多和美國有關的資金或基金經理，都不會進入大馬，甚至還會逃之夭夭！由此，政府有責任辦點正事，恢復商界與投資者的信心：

（一）讓「安華事件」及調查全部透明化，美國國務卿賴斯的建議適當，警方必需把所有安華相關的調查資料公諸于世，讓「真相大白」。

如果警方這么做，將減少一些不必要的口舌之爭，亂象亦減，警方也必須讓國家權威機構代表來調查、收集資料等，控告和審判過程亦應全部公開。當然，這些機構不應由美國主導，因為他們有過多偏見。

（二）人民不應再迷信和誤信政客的「放話」和網絡的謠言或傳言。

今天的亂象，主要是人們「以訛傳訛」，輕易相信謠言，例如，首相拿督斯里阿都拉的開放被眨為「無能和軟弱」。現在面對與1998年類似的「非常時期」，他應嚴厲對付叛變者或造謠者，大力打擊妖言惑眾的政客。

（三）傳媒應公正報導，308大選后，許多報章為了銷路和市場，把謠言當頭條封面新聞處理，製造了許多不必要的亂象。

許多年輕的傳媒人士同情某一方，許多未經檢驗，充滿偏見的報導也大量出現在媒體，才會搞到亂象叢生。網絡的風行已造成了「資訊泛濫，謠言四起」，平面媒體如果也爭先恐后報導一些未經証實的消息，大馬豈能有寧靜的局面？

大馬今天絕對要看到穩定的政局，只有政局穩定，才能發展經濟。

1974年，前首相敦拉薩為穩定大局，排除萬難到中國會見毛澤東，完成馬中建交的重要任務，這項功績不僅使國陣在大選中勝出，也使大馬政局更穩，消除了1969年513事件的不安情緒。簡言之，國陣的設立穩定了國內政治，也使到企業家及投資者對大馬更有信心。

目前的政壇亂象，應是短暫的，國外的形勢，對我們的衝擊也同樣重要。只有當全球形勢回穩，大馬人才能迎接更好的將來！

Forex Trading Isn't Right for Average Joes

LET'S JUST GET this over with: Get-rich-quick schemes are always too good to be true. Always. That means those TV and radio come-ons about making a six-figure income working from home are at best a waste of time and at worst a waste of your hard-earned income.

Having established that point, let's now say that among those improbable pitches the ones promising riches by trading foreign currency are among the worst. It's no secret that forex trading is a haven for scoundrels. So much so, in fact, that the North American Securities Administrators Association and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission maintain a standing warning about fraud.

According to the NASAA and CFTC, typical scams promise huge returns from forex trading with little or no risk. The pitches vary but often center on the power of using leverage to turn small currency bets into big paydays. In reality, the checks you write are more likely to finance a new Ferrari for the scammer than a dollar/euro futures contract.

The pitfalls of foreign exchange aren't limited to being hood-winked by con artists. Even when legitimate, forex trading is the antithesis of long-term, buy-and-hold value investing that has proven itself to be the best strategy for average investors (and made the most visible adherent to the approach, Warren Buffett, worth about $60 billion). As NASAA, an organization of state securities agencies devoted to investor protection, cautions: "Even when purchased through the most reputable dealer, forex investments are extremely risky."

One of the more pernicious aspects of forex trading for retail investors is that the market so obviously appeals to our worst day-trading instincts. Not only is it an over-the-counter market, but it almost never closes, with trading running 24 hours a day Sunday to Friday. Only Las Vegas casinos keep longer hours. If you're prone to gambling addiction, then forex trading could be your financial demise.

Even worse, legitimate forex trading is presented as simple, fun and easy to learn. In reality, it's extremely complicated. The market averages more than $3 trillion in turnover a day, according to the Bank for International Settlements, the central bank for global central banks, equivalent to roughly a quarter of U.S. GDP. Meanwhile, just a scant 5% of that turnover is due to foreign trade. The rest comes from speculation by professional traders. Dip a toe in this water and you're already swimming with sharks.

As for the trading itself, it's frenzied and complicated. Currencies trade in pairs, as in you buy dollars and sell euros (or yen, or pesos, or some other currency) simultaneously, betting on relative outcomes that are influenced by a varied and global list of factors. Trade balances or imbalances, central bank interest rates, domestic and foreign policy statements — if you thought day-trading stocks was tricky, well, the level of unpredictability here is of another order. At least in Blackjack you can learn to count cards.

Currency exchange is an important and legitimate investor consideration. American companies doing lots of business overseas, for example, are benefitting handsomely from the weak dollar. Buy U.S.-based multinationals like Boeing or Coca-Cola to potentially reap those rewards. And if you absolutely, positively must play a hunch on a specific currency, stick with exchange-traded funds, which are liquid, transparent and regulated. Rydex offers several CurrencyShares ETFs that track everything from the Australian dollar to the Swiss franc.

Forex Fraud Warning Signs

Promises that sound too good to be true. Get-rich-quick schemes tend to be frauds. Unsolicited phone calls offering forex investments, especially those from out-of-state salespersons or companies you never heard of. Companies that predict or guarantee large profits. Companies that promise little or no financial risk. High-pressure efforts to convince you to send or transfer cash immediately. Anyone who won't give you their background.

Sources: North American Securities Administrators Association, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Refco's ex-chief Bennett reaches settlement with SEC

NEW YORK - Phillip Bennett, the former head of Refco Inc who was accused of orchestrating a fraud that led to the demise of the commodities broker, has reached a settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, according to court documents.

The SEC's complaint had alleged that Bennett inflated Refco's revenues through various means, including recording fictitious interest income and income from sham foreign exchange transactions.

Bennett did not admit or deny the allegations in the SEC's civil complaint and waived the right to appeal the final judgment, which prohibits him from acting as a officer or director of a public company.

The SEC had asked Bennett to return "unjust enrichment" that he received as a result of his actions, but the settlement did not mention or specify any financial agreements, according to the documents filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan on Tuesday and signed by Judge Gerard Lynch.

Bennett had built Refco into a global commodities trading empire only to see it unravel in 2005 after the company disclosed an accounting deception.

In February, the former chief executive pleaded guilty to 20 counts of fraud, conspiracy, money laundering and lying to auditors and others.

Bennett was sentenced on July 3 to 16 years in prison for fleecing investors of more than $2.4 billion in a fraud that destroyed the world's largest independent commodities broker.

Refco filed for bankruptcy in 2005.