SEC takes aim at abusive short sales again

WASHINGTON - New rules governing the conduct of people who profit from stock declines were issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange on Wednesday as shares of major financial institutions plummeted on fears of a global credit crunch.

The three SEC rules cover shares of all publicly traded companies and follow a brief emergency rule this summer that was aimed at curbing abusive naked short selling in 19 major financial stocks.

Under a measure that takes effect Thursday, short sellers and their broker dealers must deliver securities by the close of business on the settlement date, three days after the sale.

The SEC's action comes after two turbulent days in which investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings filed for bankruptcy and U.S. authorities organized an $85 billion rescue plan for insurer American International Group.

CNBC television reported the SEC was meeting on Thursday to consider further action on short selling after heavy lobbying from the two major remaining investment banks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, as well as from New York Democratic Sens. Charles Schumer and Hillary Clinton.

A source briefed on the matter said the commission met this afternoon to discuss the new rules. It was not clear whether the SEC would take further action.

Broker-dealers failing to comply with the new delivery requirement will be prohibited from further short sales in the same security unless the shares are pre-borrowed.

"It is a game changer," said Doug Kass, who heads hedge fund Seabreeze Partners Management Inc, who has delivered double-digit returns this year by selling stocks short, including those in ailing mortgage companies.

Columbia Law School professor John Coffee said the rules were a far bolder step than the SEC was willing to take last week. "Lehman and AIG seem to have given (the SEC) religion on this topic," he said.

The SEC also immediately adopted a rule that deems it fraudulent for customers to deceive broker-dealers about the intention or ability to deliver securities in time for settlement.

Kass said that may push out some players who have recently piled into betting that stock prices will fall.

A third rule requires option market makers to deliver securities by settlement date.

"These several actions today make it crystal clear that the SEC has zero tolerance for abusive naked short selling," SEC Chairman Christopher Cox said in a statement.

The SEC had been under pressure to broadly crack down on manipulative trading. In particular, the American Bankers Association, which represents banks of all sizes, had been lobbying banking regulators to lean on the SEC.

Broker-dealers and the investment community scrambled to understand how the new rules would work.

"It is going to be impossible to comply with the new rules because no one has seen them," said Michael Trocchio, a lawyer at Bingham McCutchen LLP who advises broker-dealers on compliance issues.

Short sellers arrange to borrow shares they consider overvalued and sell them in hopes of making a profit when the price drops. It is a legitimate form of trading that can prevent stocks from being overvalued, but often blamed when a company's shares fall.

A "naked" short sale occurs when an investor sells stock that has not yet been borrowed.

Broker-dealers will sometimes accidentally fail to deliver stock to investors who have arranged to borrow it. If this is done intentionally, it is already illegal.

In July, amid sharp market declines, the SEC issued a temporary rule to curb illegal naked short selling in 19 major finance stocks, including Lehman Brothers and mortgage finance giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae which have since been seized by the government.

The rule ended mid-August and was criticized by hedge funds, short sellers and the broker-dealer community.

Bill Rhodes, president of Rhodes Analytics, was critical of the SEC's new rule concerning deception of broker-dealers.

"They need to be careful how they apply that... an honest investor could end up being caught in that," Rhodes said.

Although effective on Thursday, the SEC will open a 30-day public comment period for the rule on delivery of securities.

Technical glitch disrupts trading on Bursa Derivatives

PETALING JAYA: It was deja vu for Bursa Malaysia Bhd as a “technical glitch” credited for disrupting trading on the stock market barely three months ago re-emerged to delay the opening of the derivatives market yesterday.

Trading resumed in the afternoon after being suspended for the entire morning session.

“The opening of Bursa Malaysia Derivatives was delayed due to a technical problem detected this morning,” the stock exchange operator said in a statement released at 1.15pm yesterday. “The problem has been resolved and the trading timetable of the respective derivative products for the afternoon session remains unchanged.”

Chief executive officer Datuk Yusli Mohamed Yusoff said Bursa Malaysia encountered a system connectivity problem between the derivatives trading engine and all the derivatives brokers’ trading front-end systems.

“After resolving the connectivity problem, the exchange then undertook steps to ensure data integrity,” he said in the statement.

The glitch disrupted trading in crude palm oil futures, the global benchmark for CPO.

Futures broker G.M. Teoh said: “This does not look good in the eyes of the international trading community. Traders everywhere are asking when will Bursa stop using this (technical glitch) excuse.”

Palm oil trader Jim Teh echoed Teoh’s remarks, saying the delayed opening of the derivatives market created a bad impression in the eyes of both local and international investors.

“This is the second time a technical glitch has disrupted trading on Bursa Malaysia; it is ridiculous. It will definitely affect the confidence of local and foreign investors.

“With the technology we have today, this shouldn’t be happening. They (Bursa) should have some kind of back-up to ensure something like this does not happen,” Teh said.

Trading in equities and bonds, meanwhile, was unaffected yesterday.

On July 3, Bursa had to suspend two trading sessions following a computer hard disk failure. The halt fuelled concerns the stock exchange’s system was unreliable. The then chief information officer Yew Kim Keong took responsibility for the trading halt and resigned.

Hedge fund Paulson to weigh buying bank stocks: report

NEW YORK - Paulson & Co, a prominent New York hedge fund, will weigh buying shares or convertible bonds in banks and other financial institutions that need capital, the Financial Times reported on its website on Sunday.

John Paulson, its founder, remained bearish on the economy and the financial sector, but would consider taking positions in the sector as prices fall to his target levels, the paper reported, citing two unnamed investors who were on a Paulson conference call for clients last week.

Paulson is to launch its Recovery fund on October 1, the paper said.

John Paulson cemented his superstar reputation with a historic bet against the housing market that earned him more than $3 billion last year.

The hedge fund could not be reached immediately for comment.

Futures soar after U.S. takes over GSEs

NEW YORK - Stock index futures surged on Sunday, pointing to a sharply higher open when Wall Street opens on Monday, after the U.S. government seized control of troubled mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The takeover, the latest move by the government to shore up the slumping housing market, was taken to ward off more global financial market turbulence.

While this is seen a major step to stabilize the financial system, persistent problems stemming from the housing slump will make a sustained rally unlikely, investors said.

"I expect there will be a powerful knee-jerk rally but we won't be heading into a full-blown bull market," said Jim Awad, chairman of W.P. Stewart & Co Ltd in New York.

S&P 500 futures rose 27.8 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 212 points and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 38 points.

Officials were concerned mounting losses at the two companies, which own or guarantee almost half of the country's $12 trillion in outstanding home mortgage debt, were sapping their vitality and threatening to undermine them at a time other sources of housing finance have largely run dry.

Despite an uncertain long-time outlook, Awad said the federal takeover is still "a positive for the credit market" because many financial companies own debt issued and mortgage securities guaranteed by the two government-sponsored mortgage finance enterprises.

Chinese Stocks Are World's Worst In 2008

China won the most gold at the Olympics, but the country's stock market is in dead last.

After skyrocketing last year, the Shanghai composite has fallen harder than any market worldwide in 2008.

China stock investors and strategists remain bullish in the long term, but a recovery may depend on a global revival.

"The issue going forward is, 'When will equities around the world improve?'" said Donald Straszheim, a China specialist and vice chairman of Roth Capital Partners, an investment banking firm. "When that happens, China will improve, too."

But that hasn't happened yet. The Shanghai composite fell 0.9% on Tuesday to its lowest close since December 2006.

Year to date, the Shanghai index is down 56%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is down nearly 25% so far this year. Other China markets are in similar funks.

Sure, markets worldwide are getting hammered. But the Sino setback is more than twice the size of most others.

The rest of the world's worst -- South Korea, India and Russia -- were down "only" 25% to 29% going into Tuesday.

The S&P 500 is off 13% in 2008.

Last year, Shanghai erupted for a 97% gain. Only in hindsight does China look like a bubble that was ripe for popping, Straszheim says.

China's economy is still strong. GDP grew 10.1% in the second quarter vs. a year earlier.

That trumps the U.S. gain of 3.3% annualized, and the outright economic contractions in Japan and the euro zone.

Still, China's growth has slowed for the past four quarters. Evidence suggests a continuation of the trend as a global slowdown and credit crunch take their toll.

China's exports grew 12% in the first five months of 2008 vs. 18% in 2007, according to the World Bank. The rising Chinese currency also makes exports slightly less attractive. The yuan has climbed 6% this year vs. the dollar.

Industrial production also has cooled, though Chinese consumer spending is growing as fast as ever.

Investors fled Chinese equities out of fear of a growing flood of A-class shares, which trade on the mainland. Starting this year, the post-public-offering lockup period for many expires. About 10% of locked up shares become tradable this year. Another 25% unlock next year, Straszheim says.

Also, in the first half of 2008, the government pressed on the brakes to rein in white-hot growth and soaring inflation, says Samantha Ho, manager of the $207 million AIM China Fund. Ho is the investment director of Invesco Hong Kong, the fund's subadviser.

The People's Bank of China in June raised its reserve-rate requirement ratio for banks for the fourth and fifth times this year. The latest 100-basis-point hike took the rate to 17.5%.

"Sentiment increasingly turned negative on the back of the accelerating inflationary pressures, rising energy prices and fears of more global write-downs in the financial sector," Ho told IBD in an e-mail from her office in Hong Kong.

Chinese corporate profits are a classic glass half full or half empty.

Ho notes that recent earnings have been in line with or above consensus views.

She expects 18% profit growth for companies in the MSCI China index. Ho sees 19% growth next year, so long as the global economy does not worsen a lot.

But that's well off the 2007 pace.

"In most sectors, earnings were up 30% to 40%," said Straszheim, a former global chief economist for Merrill Lynch. "This year they'll be lucky to do 15%. That's up. But it still makes for very tough '08 comps."

The sharp sell-off has made more valuations attractive.

Meanwhile, with inflation retreating from decade highs, authorities have turned their attention back to promoting growth. The government is trying to turbocharge key export industries with moves such as boosting tax rebates for the garment and textile sectors.

China is loosening its chokehold on direct foreign investment. As a result, 50 non-Chinese financial firms can now invest directly in A-class shares. In April, regulators tripled the cap on the firms' investments to $30 billion. Ho sees that still-modest ceiling rising further this year.

Chinese officials fear that market volatility could spur social unrest. The government prefers to open the capital market gradually to avoid boom-bust market developments, Ho says.

China's infrastructure spending will help boost growth. On top of already planned buildout projects, Ho sees huge government outlays to remedy recent natural disasters.

Last winter's snowstorm, the worst in 50 years, caused 1.1 trillion yuan ($161.1 billion) in economic losses. Avoiding a repeat will require huge upgrades to transportation and power facilities.

The tab for fixing earthquake-torn Sichuan is estimated at $44 billion.

"Robust economic growth, structural improvements, ongoing corporate restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, as well as asset injections should continue to drive corporate earnings momentum and improve the quality of earnings and assets," Ho said.

Still, for China to rebound, the U.S., Europe and Japan must come out of what Straszheim calls a recession.

"China's rally is probably a 2009 event, not a 2008 event," he said.

Warren Buffett's Best Man

WHILE JASMINE AND wisteria scent the air on Caltech's Pasadena campus, a spillover crowd buzzes in anticipation in a roomy auditorium. Most of the people here are seasoned money managers, and they've come from all over the world to catch sight of something rarer than a Berkshire Hathaway stock split: Charlie Munger, without his famous partner, Warren Buffett.

Munger, 84 and blind in one eye, walks stiffly to the stage. A prestigious physics professor waits to interview him, but once the lanky, thick-bespectacled guest starts blaspheming some favorite targets, the prof rarely gets a word in edgewise. Munger's topic du jour is the spiraling credit crisis: He flings vitriol at bankers, saying they've been selling investors "a hapless mess of super-complexity." The accounting profession has "disgraced itself" with its lax standards, and so has academia. "The idea that we need derivatives is just so much twaddle," he says. Yet despite all this inanity and skullduggery, Munger still sees the investing world as a place where common sense can triumph -- if only because "it isn't so common."

To those who haven't heard of Munger, his musings might not seem particularly significant. But to his fans, they may as well be the Sermon on the Mount. Munger, Buffett's fellow Nebraskan, seems to be everything Buffett isn't -- cranky, reclusive, outwardly pessimistic. That hasn't stopped him from spending more than four decades as Buffett's principal sounding board, co-strategist, bad cop and muse. During their collaboration, Buffett has evolved from a successful but small-time money manager to the world's richest man, with unparalleled global influence -- and in the eyes of some admirers, he wouldn't be where he is without Munger. Indeed, it's difficult to know where Buffett's influence begins and Munger's ends. "Charlie has had a hand in all the major investments and those that they have passed on," says Lou Simpson, chief executive of insurance company Geico, a Buffett-Munger buy. The Oracle himself gives Munger enormous credit for helping Berkshire Hathaway return 21 percent annually for the past 42 years, double the Standard and Poor's 500. "He's my role model," Buffett gushed to SmartMoney.

IN CONTRAST TO THE showman-like Buffett, Munger shuns the spotlight. But he draws a smaller, more fanatical cult that seeks inspiration from his intellectual omnivorousness. "There are few people who consider acquiring knowledge their life's study -- he's an exemplar," says Chris Davis, of the $65 billion Davis Funds. "Buffett will understand something on a micro level," adds hedge fund star Mohnish Pabrai, "but Munger will understand how it fits into the world looking a decade out." Pabrai suggests that if you gave an IQ test to their respective fan clubs, Munger's would beat Buffett's "by quite a few points." Whoever would win, with the market choppy and both partners getting up in years, investing acolytes were eager to catch Munger on one of his rare public appearances -- and we were glad to catch him for an even rarer interview.

Buffett and Munger met at a dinner party in 1959, when Buffett was running a small hedge fund and Munger was an attorney in Los Angeles. The two men hit it off, and today Buffett credits Munger with a profound shift in how he approaches investing. Influenced by the statistics-driven approach of Ben Graham, his Columbia University business professor, Buffett had always sought to buy fair businesses at a great price, while Munger had become a believer in buying great businesses at fair prices. Munger's early influence can be seen in Berkshire Hathaway investments in such powerhouse names as Coca-Cola, Gillette and American Express.

But one of their most important buys together was their first, in 1965: Blue Chip Stamps. Blue Chip sold its stamps to merchants for cash; customers collected the stamps and redeemed them for items like toasters. But as customers were saving, that cash mostly sat around earning interest -- until Buffett and Munger took over. They started using the "float" to buy controlling stakes in companies like See's Candies, Buffalo News and Wesco Financial. (The complexity of the Wesco investment got Buffett and Munger in trouble with the Securities and Exchange Commission, but they emerged relatively unscathed.) Cash from those companies, in turn, gave Buffett the resources to take on large stakes in bigger corporations -- a strategy that helped fuel Berkshire Hathaway's phenomenal returns while building it into a conglomerate with more than $100 billion in annual revenue.

The adage "opposites attract" certainly applies to this partnership, where personality is concerned. Buffett will playfully speak of chicken coops and harems to illustrate his points; Munger likes to quote Cicero and Aristotle. Buffett is a coveted dinner companion; Munger sometimes has the opposite effect: "Our wives would rather not sit next to him," says Peter Kaufman, a friend and the editor of "Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Wit and Widsom of Charles T. Munger." Kaufman explains that Munger may start discoursing on fireflies or some such thing. "Charlie is set to broadcast rather than to receive," he says.

When he spoke with SmartMoney, Munger was relatively humble; he brushed aside the idea that he's the man behind Buffett, allowing only that "my utility was not zero." That utility may be more important than ever if Munger's gloomy outlook turns out to be correct. "Even with the market down, every investment class, on average, is liberally priced," Munger says, and the prospects for good returns are "modest" at best. His formula for success in a tough market (or any market) flies in the face of conventional wisdom: "Load up" by making big bets on the handful of businesses that could be winners. "People say the whole secret of investing is diversification," Munger told Berkshire investors earlier this year, but that idea is "ass-backwards."

When picking winners out of the herd, of course, it helps to have Buffett- or Munger-caliber acumen. Munger insists that involves little more than common sense -- the kind that comes from educating yourself broadly across multiple disciplines. Unlike other investors, Munger says, he and Buffett are careful not to overestimate what they know: "It's a disaster if you don't know the edge of your competency." They work hard at avoiding investing "asininities" and "possess a vast ability to dis-learn" when their assumptions prove false. And they keep enough cash on hand to act quickly -- since good investments don't swim by that often, Munger explains, "you have to be the man standing by a river with a spear." How to recognize those opportunities? That's where omnivorousness comes in. "Learn your gaps, and fill them," he says. "If you get three textbooks on a subject and skim them, it's a good start. That's what I do."

Sadly enough, that's not what most investors do, so it's little wonder that a certain world-weariness is one of Munger's hallmarks in his fifth decade at Buffett's side. "If Aristotle were alive today, he'd be a grumpy old man," Munger sighs, explaining that the Greek philosopher would be seeing the same mistakes made over and over. "Maybe that's some of the problem with me."

The Tao of Charlie Volatile markets. A rough economy. In 43 years of partnership with Buffett, Charlie Munger has seen it all. Five thoughts to help investors in today's environment. Avoid the Middleman Maybe we should think twice about our brokers and mutual funds. Munger says that due to its middling performance and high fees, the money-management industry as a whole "gives no value added" to its customers. "They are croupiers taking profits out of the system." Pick Common Sense Over Math Another knock against the pros? Their obsession with statistical analysis -- "boring gravel sifting," as Munger calls it -- obscures insights about which businesses are poised to succeed. "These people do involved computations, and they're walking right by great boulders of gold." Meanwhile, he and Buffett "just look for no-brainer decisions....We don't leap 7-foot fences." Think Like Ben Franklin Munger believes in educating himself deeply about, well, almost everything, "invading other people's territory" to develop a "mental latticework of theory" to shape his investing decisions. His poster boy for this approach: Ben Franklin. "He was a self-educated man who wandered over vast territory," Munger says. "He recognized that he needed higher math, so he went out and learned algebra....Learn your gaps, and fill them. That's what I do." Sit on Your Assets, if You Can While most investors associate Buffett and Munger with finding good stocks cheap, Munger points out that quality can trump price. "If you buy something because it's undervalued, you have to think about selling it when it approaches your calculation of its intrinsic value," he says. "That's hard. But if you buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That's a good thing." Make Way for China Munger says that China's competitive advantage over the U.S. is big and growing, but he's sanguine about it. "If the Chinese displace the Mungers, my attitude is 'bon voyage,'" he says. Of America, he adds, "our standing in the commercial world was once ridiculously high. Now it's merely high."

Ospraie's Anderson forced to shut flagship

BOSTON - In the world of palladium, gold and soy beans, hedge-fund manager Dwight Anderson was known as an imposing figure with an appetite for risk.

At 6-foot-3-inches (1.9-metres), Anderson's towering physical presence was long matched by towering returns at his flagship 9-year-old hedge fund, one of several portfolios managed at Ospraie Management LLC, the world's biggest commodities hedge fund firm.

But the 41-year-old investor, whose flagship Ospraie Fund Ltd returned 15 percent a year on average from 2000 to 2007 with $3.8 billion invested at its peak last year, may have attempted to climb too far too fast, say investors in his fund.

Anderson confirmed on Tuesday what had been rumored in the $2 trillion industry for days -- the Ospraie Fund lost 27 percent in August, forcing him to close it with a crippling 39 percent loss for the year.

Anderson, who launched the Ospraie Fund while working for another hedge-fund legend, Paul Tudor Jones of Tudor Investment Corp, joins a growing list of prominent fund managers forced to shut funds or firms amid heavy losses in the last few months.

"After nine years of striving to be a good steward of your capital, I am very sorry for this outcome," he wrote on Tuesday in a letter to investors such as Lehman Brothers, Credit Suisse and smaller endowments.

More details would come on Thursday, he added.

The hedge fund firm still manages other portfolios, including the $1.2 Ospraie Special Opportunities Fund.

Many investors were drawn to Anderson's laser-like focus on the long-overlooked commodities sector where he logged millions of air miles inspecting mines and corn fields around the globe.

Two investors who declined to be identified expressed concern that his 80-person firm's recent expansion might have been too quick at a time when many large investors were making big bets on commodities.

Anderson could not be reached for comment.

His investments, once limited to hard and soft commodities, expanded to include companies active in the sector. His operations also expanded. Ospraie Management's purchase this year of ConAgra Food's commodities trading unit vaulted the company into a new direction, investors said.

"Dwight Anderson was a rare breed and one of only a few people who really focused on commodities and ignored momentum trading in favor of value-based investments," said one investor who asked not to be identified. "But this kind of thing shouldn't happen and I blame it on poor risk management."

At work and at play, Anderson embraced risk, people who know him said.

He acquired a taste for commodities while earning his MBA at the University of North Carolina and quickly moved from a job on JP Morgan's commodities desk into the hedge-fund industry to work with industry icon Julian Robertson's Tiger Management fund, and then to Tudor.

In 2004, with Tudor's help, he started his own New York- based hedge-fund firm, which manages at least three funds.

In his free time he has jumped out of airplanes with skis strapped to his feet and raced ahead of stampeding bulls in Pamplona, according to an acquaintance.

Two years ago, Anderson and his investors got a jolt when souring bets on copper sent the Ospraie Fund tumbling roughly 20 percent. Anderson and his team recovered some ground, paring nearly all losses that year. Separately he shuttered a $250 million fund in 2006.

U.S. Stocks at 25.8 Times Earnings Means Rally Can't Continue

The best already may be over for the U.S. stock market this year.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which had the worst first half since 2002, added 0.2 percent this quarter, the only gain among the world's 10 biggest markets in dollar terms. Shares in the benchmark index for American equity climbed to an average25.8 times reported profits, the highest valuation in five years. The last time that happened, the S&P 500 fell 38 percent.

Money managers at Federated Investors Inc., Russell Investments and Morgan Asset Management, which oversee a combined $600 billion, said the gains won't last because corporate profits will fail to meet analysts' estimates. Wall Street forecasters, who were too optimistic about earnings for the past four quarters, predict income at America's biggest companies will grow by a record 62 percent in the final three months of 2008, according to data compiled by S&P.

``The market is pricing in the expectation of a good quarter, but we just don't see it,'' said Philip Orlando, who helps manage $350 billion as chief equity market strategist at Federated in New York. ``The fundamentals are going to be poor, earnings are going to be bad, and there are going to be more huge writedowns. We think stocks probably need to work 5 to 10 percent lower over the next month or two.''

Analyst estimates were at least 26 percentage points too high since the fourth quarter of 2007 as they failed to anticipate more than $500 billion of subprime-related bank losses and a slowing economy, according to data compiled by S&P and Bloomberg.

Rising Multiples

The S&P 500 slipped 0.7 percent

last week, its second straight retreat, as growth in consumer spending slowed and incomes fell. The index fell 13 percent this year, led by a 27 percent decline in a measure of financial stocks. A combination of rising prices and falling earnings caused S&P 500 valuations to surge more than 20 percent this quarter, the biggest increase of any major market, making them the most expensive since November 2003.

The index's price-earnings ratio rose above 25 three times in the last five decades, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The last was in 2001, during the bear market that followed the bursting of the dot-com bubble. The increase in valuations preceded a plunge that helped erase about half the market value of U.S. companies.

The ratio is being propped up now by analyst forecasts that call for the end of four quarters of slumping profits, the longest streak in seven years.

Discounted Risk

S&P 500 companies will report aggregate earnings of $21.69 a share in the current quarter, a gain of 3.9 percent from a year ago, and $24.62 a share in the final three months of 2008, 62 percent higher than last year's fourth quarter, based on projections compiled by S&P. The earnings reflect estimates for the index, adjusted for each company's weighting.

RidgeWorth Investments' Alan Gayle says prices already discount the risk of a recession, making U.S. equities attractive as profits slow internationally.

Nations sharing the euro may expand 1.5 percent this year, the slowest since 2003, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Japan, the world's second-largest economy, will grow 1.05 percent, a six-year low. China, the fastest-growing major economy, may have its smallest expansion in five years.

``The U.S. economy, while not strong, has a greater visibility of the bottom,'' said Gayle, the Richmond, Virginia- based chief investment strategist at RidgeWorth, which oversees $70 billion and went ``overweight'' U.S. stocks a month ago. Outside the U.S., ``the risk factor in the earnings estimates is a little higher than you might see on Wall Street.''

Gap, AK, Lexmark

More than 360 companies in the S&P 500 trade below the average valuation, providing opportunities to investors who pick individual stocks. Gap Inc., the biggest U.S. clothing retailer, AK Steel Holding Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. steelmaker by market value, and Lexmark International Inc., the second-biggest U.S. printer maker, are priced below 15 times earnings, even after reporting income gains of more than 30 percent in the second quarter.

Investment banks are advising clients to buy stocks in anticipation of the earnings rebound. The average forecast of 10 strategists tracked by Bloomberg is for the S&P 500 to rise 14 percent from last week's close to 1,456.50. Thomas Lee, chief U.S. equity strategist at New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co., said last month that U.S. equities will rise ``much higher'' as profits improve.

Should analysts overstate profits in the second half by the degree they did last quarter, earnings for S&P 500 companies will fall to about $72.17 a share. That would be below the level of 2005, when the S&P 500 was on average 5.9 percent lower than today.

`Fundamental Problems'

The U.S. economy won't support the earnings analysts predict, said Walter ``Bucky'' Hellwig, who oversees $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama.

Economists forecast U.S. economic growth will slip to 1.5 percent this year from 2 percent in 2007 as demand for exports wanes, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Exports accounted for all but 0.2 percentage point of the U.S. expansion last quarter, when the economy grew 3.3 percent. The jobless rate rose to 5.7 percent in July, the highest since 2004, and consumer spending increased at the slowest pace in five months, government reports showed.

``Despite this upturn in the stock market, the fundamental problems are still out there,'' Hellwig said. ``Those issues haven't gone away. That would necessitate a ratcheting down of earnings estimates, and that would imply lower stock prices.''

Steinhardt's Doubts

The most bullish profit forecasts are for U.S. financial companies. In the fourth quarter, brokerages and insurers will boost earnings almost fivefold from a year ago, analysts say.

``I don't believe we're through this credit crunch,'' said Stephen Wood, New York-based senior portfolio strategist at Russell Investments, which oversees $213 billion. ``Credit portfolios are beginning to deteriorate. Financials will continue to exert downward pressure on earnings for the balance of 2009.

'' Bank of America Corp., which earned 7 cents a share in the fourth quarter of 2007 after doubling reserves for potential loan losses to $3.3 billion in the period, will make 77 cents next quarter, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender, the second biggest in the U.S., gained 30 percent this quarter.

Citigroup Inc., the largest U.S. bank, advanced 13 percent. Analysts estimate the New York-based company, which reported $55.1 billion in losses and writedowns, the most of any financial institution, will earn 43 cents a share in the fourth quarter. That compares with a loss of $1.99 a year ago, Citigroup's biggest.

Michael Steinhardt, who returned an average 24 percent a year for almost three decades when he ran his New York-based hedge fund Steinhardt Management Co., said forecasts for an earnings rebound are a false hope.

``My intuition is that they are too early,'' he said. ``In an ordinary cycle, this should be the time to start thinking about buying. This isn't an ordinary cycle.''

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葉大偉親自向《中國報》讀者診斷馬股市未來“運情”。

他受訪時說，綜合指數創下1524點新高后，即進入盤整期，從《東方訣數》角度分析，馬股市7月、8月和9月份將表現慘淡，特別是9月份，將出現新低點。

“9月份馬股將迎來第一個挑戰，綜指能否把關1000點受到考驗，若不幸失守，情況令人擔憂，將陷入780至980點低水平。

“但我認為，綜指不可能跌至800多點，這將違反自然投資生態原則。”

他指出，8月和9月份是買股好時機，投資者宜趁低買入，採用一般的投資策略，即“低價買高價賣”。

明年6月轉強

“馬股將在11月和12月份反彈收高，屬于收拾腹地，並非再掀漲潮。”

葉大偉說，以個人的玄學鑽研功力，可利用《東方訣數》推算馬股未來3至5年的走勢，甚至個別股項的單日表現。

“估計2009年6月份，全球股市將逐步轉強，會出現另一輪牛市漲潮，是不可錯過的買賣時機，好行情將直到2010年初。”

惟他提醒投資者，2010年6月直到年底，全球股市將在毫無預警下掉入“崩盤”走勢，建議投資者趁早套現離場。

股票市場常言“5窮6絕7上吊”，反映股市行情看淡；若葉大偉推算準確，馬股目前的跌勢至少持續至9月份。

葉大偉說，國內投資者劃分3類，即不相信預測週期，著重公司基本面和業績報告、靠貼士過活，及採用西方技術分析或東方玄學測算股市走向。

他坦言，本地甚少投資者接受或熟悉玄學投資法，嚴重缺乏相關知識。

掌握投資金鎖匙

《東方訣數》是一套全面投資技術，涵蓋“密碼”、“實戰”、“管理”和“修為”四大層面。

葉大偉指出，對玄學一竅不通的投資者，只需騰出一天的時間就可掌握《東方訣數》的基本概念和運作。

《東方訣數》投資技術的主要工具是“羅盤”，一旦掌握全套技術，就可在全世界闖江湖，適合測算各類投資產品，包括期貨、股市、原產品及外匯等。

葉大偉形容《東方訣數》猶如一把投資金鎖匙，可開通全球任何一道投資大門，沒有地域限制。

另一面，葉大偉說，自國際原油價格突破每桶145美元（約482.85令吉）后，《東方訣數》分析數據顯示，油價上漲空間明顯增大，年底可能漲升至198美元（約659.34令吉）。

10年週期

他預測，油價99%不衝破200美元（約666令吉）天價，將從近200美元價位至少滑落30%至40%。

另外，他指出，美元指數下跌7年，“7”在玄學和聖經中有重要的地位。

“美元是世界眾多國家的掛鉤貨幣，最近很多國家的貨幣幣值，因美元貶值而顯著升值，但情況或在2008年下半年出現改變。”

“美元指數已跌無可跌，隨時反彈回升，最快將在下半年，最遲2009年初。”

葉大偉說，10年前，索羅斯狙擊亞洲金融體系，導致1997年亞洲陷入金融風暴，打擊各行各業，股市暴跌，使許多華資企業家傾家蕩產、家離子散。

他指出，10后的今天，雖然沒再發生股災，卻因為原產品價格高漲，全球引發通脹憂慮，同樣是經濟困境之一。

堅守8020原則

葉大偉秉持“多算多勝，少算少勝”的投資精神，測算股市下一分鐘起或跌，推算效果驚人。

他說，研究《東方訣數》時，為了證實技術分析的準確性，公開在媒體刊登走勢預測，及預先預測金融市場走勢和即將發生的重大變化，而非“馬后砲”。

“就以美國爆發次級房屋貸款危機為例，2007年7月11日、18日、20日和25日，我們連續幾天在報章刊登小訊息‘7月尾清場，8月始轉勢；10月榴槤跌，某國有大劫’。”

“結果，全球股市于7月29日后暴跌。”

葉大偉指出，雖然預測準確度達95%，但仍以最保守的態度推算，堅持“8020”原則，即80%命中率，20%為市場實際變化率。

“測算結果再準確，也必須緊貼市場脈搏和觀察每一個細微的變化。”

他坦言，研發《東方決數》成功后，曾與股票經紀一同上班，天天到證券行報到，常常5分鐘即賺進400至500令吉。

惟后來覺得大馬投資市場欠缺透明度，隨后把戰場轉移到國際投資市場。

葉大偉簡介

葉大偉自小對中國術數如五行、陰陽、命理、風水、奇門、八卦、像數、九宮等五術玄學都有濃厚興趣，並拜訪許多明師，長期深入研究。

葉畢業于電腦系，1996年求學時期創辦公司，在許多國際展銷會中創下全場最佳銷售量的佳績，成為頂尖銷售商。

可惜1997年暴發亞洲金融風暴，許多大公司週轉失靈倒閉，在這場浩劫中，葉大偉無法倖免，身邊親朋戚友也紛紛因投資股市失利面臨困境。

葉大偉在投資生涯中起起跌跌，后來因緣巧合之下，向另一位師交學習命理玄學，尋找人生答案。

外人眼中，一名商人“淪落”成為一名風水師，實在是慘不忍睹。

事實上，這際遇給他在日后開發《東方訣數》埋下伏筆。

The four horsemen of the market

Heed the sobering investment advice of these veteran money managers

SAN FRANCISCO - As investors, they fly solo. As market observers, they don't lead or follow as much as go their own way. It's tempting to dismiss their Cassandra-like warnings as overly pessimistic and hopelessly out of step, but their track records show that can be a costly mistake.

Jeremy Grantham, Bob Rodriguez, John Hussman and Steve Leuthold are contrarian-minded investors and opinionated commentators who share one thing in common: Those who buy into their funds never know exactly where their money will be parked. It could be emerging markets or alternative energy, high-yield debt or Treasurys. And if these risk-conscious money managers don't see compelling values, they might hedge their portfolios against unruly markets or even stash a good chunk of shareholders' assets in cash until better bargains appear.

You might call them the Four Horsemen of the Market, riding ahead of the predictable approaches and traditional thinking that defines most of the mutual-fund business. While these strategists display individualistic tailoring and design, what they have to say about stock and bond markets and economic conditions should get investors' collective attention.

Jeremy Grantham: 'Officially scared'

Jeremy Grantham is not given to false alarms. The chief investment strategist at GMO, the highly regarded Boston-based manager of institutional and high-net-worth accounts, makes buy and sell decisions with a combination of computerized technical analysis and old-fashioned spadework. But nowadays, his digging for attractively valued stocks is mostly hitting rocks, and that has Grantham deeply concerned.

"The fundamentals have turned out to be worse than I had thought," Grantham said. "My advice would be, don't take any risk."

What he means is that in this market, don't be a hero; live to fight another day. Here's why: Global economic growth is slowing under the weight of increasingly illiquid credit markets and inflationary pressures. Weaker growth slashes corporate earnings, and since stock prices are tied to earnings, the outlook for equities worldwide, as Grantham sees it, is poor to middling.

"I don't consider myself a 'perma-bear,'" Grantham said. "Merely a realist."

It's a grim reality, to be sure. In Grantham's world view, stocks in both developed and emerging markets are "substantially overpriced," with the possible exception of high-quality blue-chip companies that have strong, defensible global franchises.

"I underestimated in almost every way how badly economic and financial fundamentals would turn out," Grantham wrote shareholders in a July letter. "Events must now be disturbing to everyone, and I for one am officially scared!"

One of his biggest fears, he added in an interview, is that "the whole global economy will be weaker than the market expects for quite a considerable time." How long? "I would guess at least two years of sustained disappointment."

Notably, just a few weeks ago Grantham turned negative on his "beloved" emerging markets, which had been a spot-on bullish call. "If the global economy is going to disappoint, the cost of holding them just seemed too high," he said.

Grantham is particularly uneasy about China, a leading engine of world growth that seems to be sputtering. "I worry on behalf of the global economy at the consequences of China stumbling," he said. Without China's robust demand, he added, "the whole level of global imports and exports would start to drop."

Don't hide under the mattress just yet. Grantham points out that many of the world's strongest companies are based in the U.S., which could help the U.S. market's relative performance. Moreover, he said, the weaker global picture will benefit the U.S. dollar, so the American market could turn out to be "a safe haven."

Bob Rodriguez: 'Buyer's strike'

Bob Rodriguez wants to be left alone. The manager of FPA Capital Fund and bond-focused sibling FPA New Income Fund has since June 2003 been on a self-proclaimed "buyer's strike" regarding high-quality bonds with maturities greater than two years.

Rodriguez believed then -- and is even more convinced now -- that longer-term Treasury yields aren't substantial enough to compensate investors for inflation's eroding impact on purchasing power. He wants to get 5% on 10-year Treasurys, which recently yielded 3.8%, before venturing back.

Consequently, Rodriguez continues to focus on "caution and capital preservation," as he explained to fund shareholders in a June letter. More than 40% of Capital Fund, for example, is given to short-term government agency and Treasury notes and cash.

"We will not provide long-term capital to borrowers with unsound and unwise business management practices at unattractive real yields," Rodriguez wrote. That includes the U.S. government, he noted. "We require a higher level of compensation -- i.e. more yield, for these potential risks."

The line in the sand hasn't hurt performance, however. Capital Fund, which is closed to new investors, has gained about 9% over the five years through Aug. 27, matching its midcap-value peers but with much less risk. New Income, meanwhile, is open to new money; it's 4% annualized five-year gain also was achieved with below-average risk.

"He's not naturally the most optimistic person you'll ever chat with," said Christopher Davis, a fund analyst at investment researcher Morningstar Inc. "Even in the best times he's looking for the gray lining in a silver cloud. That's one of the reasons you invest with him."

As for stocks, the value-oriented fund manager was early to embrace the energy sector several years ago and has hung on for the ride. And not surprisingly, Rodriguez steered clear of banks and other financial-services firms even as many of his value-driven counterparts saw bargains.

"By my calculation he adds about two percentage points a year through market timing or varying his exposure" to stocks, said Robin Carpenter, principal of CarpenterAnalytix.com, which develops investment tools for money managers. "That's a big number when it's added on top of the other returns you're getting. Some managers would kill for two extra percent."

Rodriguez declined requests to be interviewed.

John Hussman: 'Stay defensive'

It's tough to put John Hussman in a box. Not that you'd want to. Hussman runs two portfolios: stock-focused Hussman Strategic Growth Fund and bond-centric Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund. Both are run with a careful eye to valuations and broad economic conditions that dictate the degree of market risk that Hussman is willing to accept.

For Hussman nowadays, risk-taking doesn't offer much reward. "We're fully hedged," the fund manager said, meaning that a portfolio won't be affected, positively or negatively, by market gyrations.

The reason? Hussman said he's looking for another shoe to drop once investors recognize that the U.S. has not avoided recession.

"The stock, bond and foreign-exchange markets continue to trade essentially on the theme that the global economy is weakening, but that the U.S. has dodged a recession," Hussman wrote in his weekly market commentary in late August.

Investors' consensus is mistaken, Hussman contends. He said the U.S. is mired in recession, and once investors realize that earnings expectations are overblown, stocks will take another major hit.

"The potential downside could be abrupt, leaving little opportunity to make defensive changes after the fact," Hussman wrote.

While Strategic Growth's hedges insulate it from the market's volatility, Hussman is anything but neutral. The portfolio is fully invested in stocks, and how these selections fare determines the fund's return.

"What drives our fund is the difference in performance between the stocks we own and the indices we use to hedge," Hussman said.

That said, Hussman doesn't expect much from stocks. He predicted that U.S. market returns will average 4%-6% annualized over the next decade, primarily due to weaker corporate earnings. Given that slower-growth view, Hussman dumped most of his exposure to the commodity, industrials and precious-metals sectors, which thrive in expansionist periods, and he's spotted bargains in consumer-related industries such as health-care products and medical devices; one of Strategic Growth's top holdings is Johnson & Johnson.

"A lot of those [consumer] names in my view got too far depressed," Hussman said.

He also sees value in technology stocks, and at the end of June Strategic Growth had meaningful stakes in Amazon.com and Research in Motion Ltd.

Steve Leuthold: 'Pretty positive'

Steve Leuthold has been called a "superbear" for his extreme pessimism about stocks during the bull run of 1998, and more recently a year ago when stock exposure in flagship funds such as Leuthold Core Investment Fund and sibling Asset Allocation Fund barely scraped 30%.

Leuthold is a colorful figure, offering targeted portfolios with catchy names like the bear-market Grizzly Short Fund and the bottom-fishing Undervalued and Unloved Fund.

But Leuthold is straightforward about stock research, and he goes where it tells him. So he didn't balk a couple of weeks ago when the signs all said "buy."

Now Leuthold's allocation-driven portfolios are covering short positions and other hedges and moving from a neutral, 50-50 equity/bond allocation toward 60% stocks -- nearing their 70% maximum threshold.

"Our whole office is surprised," Leuthold said in an interview "This is quite a departure for us. I don't believe I've ever seen such a dynamic change, going from mildly negative through neutral to pretty positive."

Like Hussman, Leuthold is convinced that the U.S. economy is in recession. But he points out that the stock market typically bottoms around the midpoint of the downturn. By his reckoning, the economy entered recession toward the end of 2007, and the extensive valuation criteria he uses tell him there's now light at the end of the tunnel.

"The bottom has been made," Leuthold said. "The economy is going to start showing some positive signs sometime in the first half of 2009."

So he's getting in early, loading up on shares of biotechnology and alternative-energy companies in particular, and keeping a modest amount in oil drillers and natural gas producers.

Enthusiastic stock buying sets Leuthold apart, but it's in keeping with his iconoclastic ways.

"I guess I still am a contrarian," he said.

"He's definitely not your standard money-management personality," added Greg Carlson, a Morningstar fund analyst. "His approach is quite different from the norm. It's his willingness to be bearish that sets him apart."

More volatility seen with hurricane, payrolls

NEW YORK - Wall Street is set for another volatile week after the Labor Day holiday, as investors track the price of oil, key economic data and continued fallout from the credit crisis.

All eyes will be on Hurricane Gustav and its potential to disrupt U.S. Gulf Coast oil production and refining operations on its expected land-hit early in the week. Any new threat to oil production could boost the price of crude and in turn cause stock investors to sell shares on fears that inflation pressure will rise.

Investors will also contend with a barrage of economic data next week, notably the August payrolls report due out on Friday and two reports on U.S. factory activity from the Institute for Supply Management.

But the hurricane will be the main focus at the beginning of the week. On Friday, officials said the storm would build to a dangerous Category 3 hurricane when it hits land.

In the past week, oil prices have surged and retreated on concerns about the storm's path, strength and the readiness of U.S. emergency officials to handle any disruptions.

Crude oil hit $120 on Thursday before settling at $115 on Friday, bolstered by a stronger dollar.

Gustav "will probably be moving the market one way or the other," said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International Investments Advisers LLC in Newark, New Jersey. "If it fizzles then it will be a big relief on oil prices."

Also driving the market next week are several government economic reports.

This data comes after the U.S. government said gross domestic product grew at a robust 3.3 percent clip between April and June, above initial estimates of 1.9 percent.

But analysts said the strong showing was largely the result of increased exports.

"If you look at GDP, you're led to believe the economy is solid," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisor in Albany, New York. "But if you look at the variables -- employment, industrial production and personal income -- the economy does not look solid but weak."

On Friday, all three major indexes fell more than 1 percent and all 30 stocks in the Dow industrials finished in the red.

Economic data added to the market's jitters after a government report showed U.S. personal income fell unexpectedly in July while spending slowed as the effects of a government stimulus package wore off.

An inflation measure hit a 17-year high.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 171.47 points, or 1.46 percent, at 11,543.71. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 17.93 points, or 1.38 percent, at 1,282.7. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 44.12 points, or 1.83 percent, at 2,367.52.

For the month, though, the Dow added 1.5 percent, while the S&P rose 1.3 percent and the Nasdaq gained 1.8 percent.

The August jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is also expected to be weak, with an overall decline in non-farm payrolls of 85,000 and no change in the unemployment rate of 5.7 percent for August.

In July, U.S. non-farm payrolls fell for a seventh straight.

Another month of hefty job losses would reinforce those who argue that the economy remains in poor shape, Johnson said.

Market watchers are also awaiting data on U.S. auto and same-store retail sales for clues about consumer spending in the upcoming holiday season, along with the Federal Reserve's Beige Book.

"The markets are extremely volatile and moving according to macroeconomic news quite a bit," said Prudential International Investments' Praveen. "All of this data has the potential to be moving markets."

Investors will also be tracking new developments among financial companies, particularly beleaguered mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc, which is shopping its asset management division arm.

Lehman, the fourth-largest U.S. investment bank, is looking for buyers for some $40 billion of commercial mortgages and property on its balance sheet.

Although developments in the race for the White House will not take center stage, analysts said that Wall Street will be watching the Republican National Convention next week for long-term market implications.

Investors will particularly hone in on Sen. John McCain's tax and energy policy, especially following his selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.

"The markets are not going to be happy with an Obama presidency...and McCain is not particularly loved by Wall Street either," said George Schwartz, president at Schwartz Investment Counsel in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan.

But with Palin, "conservatives are going to come out roaring in favor," Schwartz said. "It's going to be a positive influence on economic activity."

Schwartz added that the pairing could impact oil prices, especially if Palin and McCain say they strongly support off-shore drilling.

"That premise of additional supplies is going to further take the speculators out of the market and cause them to put downward pressure," he said.

Gustav: What's at stake

A hurricane threatens to halt much of the Gulf of Mexico's oil production, which could send crude and gas prices back up near mid-summer levels.

NEW YORK - The Gulf of Mexico is home to 4,000 drilling platforms and 33,000 miles of pipeline, which send 1.3 million barrels a day to the Gulf Coast's 56 refineries. But a hurricane threatens to deal a powerful blow to the oil-rich region.

Hurricane Gustav, which just smacked Jamaica with heavy rain and winds, is heading towards the Gulf of Mexico, and forecasters predict its path will steer right through the heart of the region's biggest concentration of oil and gasoline producers.

Experts say the storm has the potential to significantly disrupt oil production in the region, potentially damaging gasoline refineries, which could send the price of oil and gas back up near record highs.

Production disruption: Though meteorologists stressed that storm prediction is an uncertain practice, by the time it is expected to hit Louisiana on Tuesday, forecasters say the storm is likely to intensify into a Category 3 hurricane. That would bring 130 mile per hour winds to the region, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"Production will be shut down in the path of the storm," said Cathy Landry, a spokeswoman for the American Petroleum Institute. "Not every rig will be in the storm's path, but the oil companies tend to be very cautious."

The average hurricane halts oil drilling production for more than a week, according to API. Many companies have already begun the evacuation process, as rig workers are forced to evacuate two to three days before the storm hits. As soon as it's safe to return, they have to check for damage before they can restart production.

"Platforms have to withstand not just the winds, but also waves, rain and currents," Landry noted.

The U.S. Department of the Interior estimates that 76% of the Gulf of Mexico's platforms and 67% of Gulf pipelines were in the direct path of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. The cyclones, both of which reached Category 5 strength, destroyed 113 offshore oil and natural gas platforms and damaged 457 pipelines.

Gustav appears to be heading in the same direction - right up the gut of the oil drilling and refining region.

"If the storm was heading West or East, then companies could just shut down one region of the Gulf," Landry said. "But it looks to be heading through the center, so a good portion of the Gulf will be shut down."

Refinery damage: The big storms in 2004 and 2005 did considerable damage to oil drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, severely cutting into supply to gasoline refineries on the shore.

Though slow-moving, weak tropical storms over the Gulf of Mexico can halt oil drilling, powerful hurricanes that hit land can knock out refineries. That's because about 40% of U.S. refining capacity is located on the Gulf Coast, namely in oft-hit states like Texas and Louisiana. After Katrina and Rita, 30% of Gulf Coast refineries were shut down or operating with reductions.

It's rare for a refinery to be totally knocked out by a hurricane, but many are susceptible to wind and water damage that can limit supply to and from the facilities. Similar to offshore drilling platforms, refineries are sometimes shut down for more than a week before they can return to full operability, according to API.

Part of the reason Katrina and Rita led to such a spike in gas prices was that there weren't enough functional facilities to make up for the lost output. Although capacity at many U.S. oil refineries has been expanded, there hasn't been a new refinery built in the United States in three decades.

Prices could jump: Some of those living on the Gulf Coast have already reported seeing gas prices jump nearly 10 cents over the past few days. If Gustav damages refineries, prices could go much higher.

"Depending on the timing and impact, the storm could really move this market," said Alaron Trading analyst Dan Flynn. "It's not a far stretch to see oil back over $125 and gas back above $4."

Flynn noted that Tropical Storm Hanna also threatens to enter the Gulf of Mexico, though its path is less certain.

In 2005, the Gulf Coast was battered by two hurricanes - Katrina and Rita - in the span of a few weeks, bringing many Americans their first glimpse at $3 a gallon for regular gas. The destruction from Hurricane Katrina alone led gasoline prices to jump 46 cents, or 17%, in just one week to a national average of $3.11, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

A similar surge now would send gas prices to nearly $4.40 a gallon, well past the previous record of $4.11 a gallon set in July and erasing all the declines seen over the last few weeks.

"The bottom line is what the damage to the refineries will be, but the markets still tend to overreact," Flynn added. "We'll likely see a big spike in the price of gasoline prices."

May not be so bad: Experts say, however, the fallout from Katrina and Rita is unlikely to be repeated.

"Yes, there will be an impact on the market, but we're much better prepared now than we were before Katrina and Rita," said Landry.

Since 2005, the industry began making changes to the structures. The Interior Department in April 2008 imposed more stringent design and assessment criteria for both new and existing structures located within particular Gulf of Mexico areas.

For example, drilling rigs moored to sea floor in the Gulf had been attached with eight lines, and are now required to be moored with 12 to 16 lines. New rigs are built higher out of the water than ones that were built previously, and old rigs were strengthened, according API.

And pipelines, which carry most of the oil and gas from the production platforms to the shore, now are equipped with redundant electric generation stations to ensure the power to the pumps will not be interrupted.

"This storm will be a good test for the [new standards]," said Landry.

8月跌4.4%,政局牽制動向,馬股9月走勢難測

在外資拋售和政治不穩定的影響下，馬股以下跌4。37%的姿態結束8月份的交易，表現中規中矩。展望9月份，分析員認為馬股走勢難測，而政局變動將會繼續牽制股市的走向。

根據統計顯示， 馬股8 月份共下跌4。37%，表現比印尼、新加坡、香港和上海標青，但是則較日本、曼谷和台北股市遜色。

達證券抽佣經紀陳玉麟表示，基于外資拋售和政治動盪，讓投資者的情緒深受影響，進而影響馬股在8月份的表現。

此外，種植股和原油價格回跌，也令馬股面臨雙重的打擊。

有鑑于種植股占了馬股的20%比重，同時，馬股也相當依賴這兩個領域，所以其對馬股的表現將產生很大的影響，尤其是IOI集團的表現。

針對9月份的走勢，陳玉麟表示，很難做出預測，因為一切都得看9月10日和16日這兩個日子。

他指出，10日是人民公正黨領袖安華被控上庭的日子，如果安華不被獲准保釋外出，股市料會下跌，而安華在16日的奪權是否成功，都會影響股市表現。

他也透露，如果安華成功奪權，股市就會大跌，但是也有可能在后期吸引外資進場。

先觀察再投資

「相較于泰國和菲律賓，大馬是以穩定的局勢來吸引投資者，但是現在的政治情況，卻讓馬股處于危險的位置。我們的國家現在很脆弱，不能再有其他風雨了。」

此外，分析員指出，09年財政預算案，也對9月份的走勢起著影響。

他們建議投資者在9月份進行投資時，要格外小心，並勸告投資者在觀察9月10日和16日的情況后，再做出投資決定。

市場正面看待預算案措施,馬股受激勵臨尾大漲

隨著09年財政預算案出爐，大馬股市在臨尾大漲，反映出市場正面看待新的預算案；綜指在收市前高漲30.04點或2.81%，重新衝破1100點大關，以1100.50點掛收，寫下5個月以來最大單日漲幅。

市場人士指出，政府宣佈減低個人所得稅、增加稅務回扣和各種有利於低收入群的措施，可有效地刺激消費者的開銷，而香煙稅的漲幅也符合預期，加上啤酒稅和博彩稅維持不變，促使相關股項在臨收市前大漲，再加上區域股市全線回彈，成為週五馬股大漲的主要推動力。

雲頂大漲推升綜指

由於博彩稅沒有調升，雲頂今日股價臨尾大漲，全天起55仙至5.85令吉，進而推高馬股。

基金經理張子敏接受《東方財經》詢問時表示，市場在臨尾回彈，反映出市場相當看好此次的預算案，且政府並不急於控制赤字，願意在國家發展上增加開銷。因此，他認為最新預算案整體上的規劃不錯，主要讓低收入群受惠，並鼓勵人民消費和刺激市場。

市場均認為，這是一個親民的預算案，尤其是對中低收入階層。這次的預算案沒有太大驚喜，不過，正所謂「沒有壞消息，就是最好的消息」，整體來說，還算是正面的推動力。

Areca資本基金經理黃德明指出，許多好消息的宣佈，以及沒有不好的消息，反映出這是一個不錯和惠民的預算案。不過，他仍對一些預測中的措施沒有宣佈，而感到失望，包括減低僱員公積金繳納率，及產業市場的一些利惠措施。

益資利基金經理莊勇仁指出，這次的預算案符合他的預測，對中低收入群的利惠最大，不過，也沒有什麼特別的驚喜。香煙稅的調高屬預料之中，反而啤酒稅和博彩稅維持不變，帶來了一些驚喜。

張子敏透露，新預算案的措施有不少符合市場預期，包括削減印花稅、個人所得稅、預扣稅等，唯一美中不足的，是沒有如市場預期般調整公積金繳納額，但政府還是以另一種方式讓低收入群獲益，即調低個人所得稅。

Is It Time to Sell Your Foreign Stocks?

The stock prices of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have cratered. The bottom of the worst housing slump since the Great Depression hasn't been reached. Fears of inflation are mounting.

Yet the dollar is rallying against foreign currencies. Despite recent gyrations, the U.S. Dollar Index, a futures contract reflecting the dollar's value against six major currencies, is up 9% since reaching a recent low on July 15. The turnaround is a major factor behind the stock market's 4% gain over the same period, along with the decline in oil prices.

What does the possibility of a stable-to-stronger dollar mean for the international stocks in your portfolio? Is it time to bail? A lot is at stake: Since 2003, some $490 billion in net new cash poured into international stock funds, vs. a net $208 billion for domestic stock funds, according to the Washington (D.C.)-based Investment Company Institute. And how about foreign bonds? Thanks to the weak dollar, U.S. investors in foreign bonds have enjoyed a currency-translation boost to their yields in recent years.

Thinking through the impact of the dollar's moves used to be simpler. The old maxim was that when the dollar was strong you should flee international securities, and when it was weak you should send money overseas. But hewing to simplistic truisms is hazardous in today's quicksilver global capital markets. Profiting from any turn in the dollar's fortunes requires a more nuanced strategy now -- and patience.

First of all, market veterans call for a reality check on this rally. Few expect the dollar to retrace years of losses anytime soon, and a 9% gain is tiny compared with the greenback's 50% slide against the euro and 30% tumble against the British pound over the past six years. Still, the global economic cycle may favor America's currency. While the U.S. slid into a downturn or even a recession about a year ago, only recently has growth faltered among other major industrial nations, especially in Europe. "We are picking up and they are slowing," says James W. Paulsen, chief investment strategist of Wells Capital Management.

The global business cycle should affect the gap between interest rates set by the world's central banks. There is a growing expectation that the difference in yields will narrow, especially between the U.S. and Europe. The Federal Reserve Board's benchmark rate is 2% while that of the European Central Bank (ECB) is 4.25%, and Europe could become a less attractive parking place for yield-hungry investors as the ECB combats economic weakness. "The dollar rally we have seen has been especially against the euro," says Bob Doll, vice-chairman and global chief investment officer of equities at investment management firm BlackRock. "The ECB's next move will be to lower rates, and I'm talking in months rather than years."

Yet even as the outlook for the dollar improves compared with the euro and currencies of other major developed nations, it could continue to depreciate against currencies of major emerging markets. That's an idea investors seem to be testing. The CurrencyShares Euro Trust is down 5.7% over the past three months, for example, while the WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real is up 4% and the CurrencyShares Mexican Peso Trust gained 4.1%. "Even if the decline against the euro is over, there may well be other non-European currencies that will appreciate against the dollar," says Burton G. Malkiel, an economics professor at Princeton University and author of the investing classic, A Random Walk Down Wall Street.

Why? Emerging-market growth rates dwarf those of the developed world. Their interest rates are higher, too. Over time a number of the countries will rely less on exports and more on consumers for growth. Take China: A mere 40% of its economy is driven by consumers, vs. 70% in the U.S. The move from an export-led economy to a consumer-driven one will encourage developing nations to lessen control over currency fluctuations and haltingly embrace floating exchange rates, which will allow their currencies to appreciate against the dollar.

Portfolio Tweaking

By this calculus, investors should comb through their developed world and emerging market securities and treat them differently, at least when it comes to the expected impact of currency on asset values. Long-term investors with fortitude should maintain exposure to fast-growing "frontier market" economies. But when it comes to Europe and Japan, portfolio tweaking could pay off.

Dollar strength would favor the U.S. stock market over foreign bourses. Multinationals, however, might find it tougher to outperform their smaller, more U.S.-focused brethren. The profits of U.S.-based global giants are by definition more exposed to foreign revenues. "The tailwind is morphing into a headwind," says Alec Young, international equity strategist at Standard & Poor's. But big-cap exposure to overseas economies varies greatly. Tech companies in the S&P 500-stock index get about 55% of revenues from abroad. It's 32% for large-cap financials. Even less exposed: railroads, retail food chains, and utilities.

A stronger dollar would have a bigger effect on foreign bonds. Simply put, dollar gains cut the value of interest and principal payments of foreign bonds when converted into dollars. That prospect spurred Ross Levin, head of Accredited Investors in Edina, Minn., to shift client money early this year from an unhedged foreign bond portfolio into a Pimco dollar-hedged mutual fund. "We wanted to stay in foreign bonds, but take out currency risk," he says. A beefier greenback also adds to the pressure on commodity prices, which are being hurt by slowing global growth. But, cautions Peng Chen, president of Ibbotson Associates, "long-term, the fundamentals of strong demand are still there, especially given demand from emerging countries."

炒股有一套,劍橋錄取他

英國劍橋大學等世界一流名校，23日在南京等地進行錄取考試，全中國共有13個考試中心的近150位優秀中國高中生應試。

據了解，劍橋憑借“炒股交割單”，錄取了一名16歲的南京男生。

劍橋和英聯邦名校遴選項目負責人張濤表示，注重學生的學業表現，只是英國名校選才的第一步。

通過綜合性的面試，一些筆試不占優勢卻有個性、有特長、有責任感的學生也是錄取對象。

張濤說，劍橋曾錄取南師附中江寧分校當年只有16歲的學生王天曉。

王天曉剛讀高中不久，筆試成績並不突出。

但他在面試時隨身帶著自己的炒股交割單，高一時爸爸給他1000美元（3385.77令吉），他賺了20%。

高二時爸爸給他1萬美元（3萬3857令吉），他賺到25%。

他在金融方面的潛質，讓劍橋決定錄取他。

供給料減少,商品行情反轉上攻

玉米及黃豆出現反彈，產量減少，導致美國庫存降到近5年低點。油價也因美國與俄羅斯關係緊張而反轉。Xstrata Plc關閉多明尼加的工廠，鎳價也翻揚。

商品歷來最慘烈的殺盤可能告一段落，甚至可能重演2006年標普500種指數GSCI指數大跌後，接下來17個月上漲1倍的舊事。但這次推升行情的動力是供給減少，而非需求增加。

花旗集團全球商品分析師艾倫哈克表示：「供給吃緊愈來愈引人注目，商品將不再是齊頭式上漲，而是各自表現。明年商品仍會上漲，部分商品甚至漲到後年。」

商品多頭行情已進入第7年，因中國及印度的需求，及農礦業供給中斷。原料價格自4個月低點反彈，可能帶動必和必拓獲利，提高Nestle SA的成本，刺激通脹，限制柏南克及特裡謝等中央銀行主事者，降息及歐美景氣成長的能力，油價比起逾3個月低點，已上漲3%。

委內瑞拉能源及石油部長拉美勒表示，石油輸出國家組織9月9日開會，可能會考慮減產，且美國汽油庫存減少。油價22日收報114.59美元，比7月11日147.27美元的紀錄，高點下跌22%。

聰明人用別人的錢賺錢，投資房地產，以小錢賺大錢？

投資房地產的好處就是可以把房地產抵押，以區區的20%甚至10%的成本，就可以獲得80%甚至90%的貸款，充份的發揮以小錢賺大錢的槓桿效應。也許你還看不到以槓桿效應錢生錢的「威力」，看了下列的分析你就不難明白了：

假如你用10萬令吉的現錢投資一項產業，1年後產業增值20%，那你只不過是賺取區區的2萬令吉。

但是，如果你以10萬令吉的成本，向銀行貸款90%，你就可以購買總值100萬令吉的產業。若是這些產業1年後也同樣增值20%的話，你的總回酬將是20萬令吉。

換句話說，以同樣的10萬令吉成本，現錢投資你就只賺得相等於20%的2萬令吉，但以槓桿效應向銀行借貸投資，你則可獲得高達200%的20萬令吉投資回酬。以相同的原理，來投資於收入型的產業，要是有8%租金回酬的話，以10萬令吉現錢購買一間產業，你每年就只有8千令吉的租金收入。但是向銀行借貸90%作大筆投資，則可讓你每年享有8萬令吉的租金收入。這就是向來許多「專家」非常強調：以小錢賺大錢，投資於房地業這個公開的秘密！

水能載舟，亦能覆舟

看了這些分析，你會有什麼反應？我想，如果你還未曾投資過房地產的話，你一定會有一股衝動，想馬上找一些本錢來投資於房地產。要是你真的想要投資於房地產的話，我想你也會盡本能向銀行借貸最頂限的貸款，以充份的發揮你的金錢效益，對嗎？

在你還未輕舉妄動作出決定之前，請先允許我向你潑一潑冷水，讓你清醒過來，冷靜的思考、分析、再作決定好不好？首先我必須提醒大家：「水能載舟，亦能覆舟」。那些專家朋友所告訴你，如何通過借貸，在產業界以小錢賺大錢，其重點不在於水，而是你是否深懂水性，並能好好駕駛你的船。

要是你2點都能充份掌握的話，當然更多的水能越讓你航駛自如，充份發揮你的才華。儘管如此，也還有不少的航海員在大風浪中沒頂，倘若你既不暗水性，又不懂行舟，更多的水，更大的海洋，對你而言是凶是吉，只有妳自己才知曉了。

我要當百萬富翁

要成為百萬富翁,面對失敗重新出發

天底下有許多事都是說易行難，一個錯誤決策、一個不當應對，都可能讓人和百萬身家擦肩而過。

因此，如何讓自己保持毅力，從容面對過程中的挑戰及挫敗感，才是最終關鍵。

神經語言程式學（NLP）及催眠治療課程導師尼克萊佛士接受《中國報》專訪時指出，有些人夢想過大，以致失敗時一蹶不振，無法重新出發。

“最大的問題，是這些跌倒的人並不懂得從失敗中迅速站起來。”

他指出，如何應對問題，以及擺脫挫折、重新恢復動力，都和個人潛意識里的信念息息相關。

尼克萊佛士指出，不管是創業還是透過投資致富，一般人潛意識中知道自己正用著血汗錢，因此一經挫折失去金錢，往往難以釋懷，不能走出陰影。

百萬富翁=美滿人生？

此外，夢想過大也會形成無形障礙，使人們害怕失敗，畏首畏尾不敢行動。

尼克萊佛士也是美國催眠治療師專業評審委員會（ACHE）指定講師及考試評審員。

他指出，要達到一個目標，例如成為百萬富翁，必須經過很多過程才能達到，在這個過程中，當事者必須自問：“我的夢想是否值得我這么做？”

他說，有些人只是向往更好的生活水平，即使未達錢財目標，只要生活素質已有所改善，也能取得滿足感。

宏願理財董事經理陳文博也強調，成為百萬富翁，不代表擁有圓融美滿的人生。

“財富只是一種工具，來完成人生不同階段目標，例如置產、兒女教育金、出國旅行及退休金等。”

他認為，每個人可以彈性定義自己的首桶金，因此如何定義“百萬富翁”並不是最重要的。

“最重要的，是能夠了解只要付諸行動，百萬夢其實不難圓。”

尼克萊佛士認為，是否擁有創造財富的正面潛意識，比錢財目標更重要。

“因為擁有正面潛意識的人一旦遇挫，可以更快爬起身、重新出發。”

他說，想法正面者會視挑戰過程為一種經驗或學習機會，且具備針對挑戰重新擬定對策、再出發的能力。

“這種正面潛意識是極具爆發力的，若可能將負面潛意識轉至正面，那不管在自我提升還是事業開發方面，都已是很大的突破。”

製造更大問題
勿合理化失敗

人的決定和行為，可能和大腦潛意識產生衝突，有些人會壓抑、刻意忽視問題所在。

尼克萊佛士指出，壓抑內心的矛盾，表面上已解決問題，實際上可能製造更大問題。

而且壓抑久了，矛盾只會一再加深，自己卻可能忘了問題根源，以致情緒找不到宣洩出口。

“一般人常透過責備，或找借口來合理化自己的失敗，藉此解釋為何自己不能致富。”

他提醒說，若用這些方式來減輕自己失敗的焦慮和壓力，將忽視問題根源，變相破壞致富機會。

尼克萊佛士指出，如果一個遇挫的人需要更長時間才能恢復元氣，或遲遲未能走出陰影，那就得從個人信念下手，探討當時人想法，及以對“事業有成”的定義。

他建議，若不能藉個人力量解決困擾，可尋求催眠或心靈治療師協助，藉由催眠重尋已被遺忘的記憶，以打開心結、縮短恢復時間。

創業打工異曲同工

多位接受訪問的百萬富翁，在創業或投資之初並非衝著百萬身家而來，他們都是邊實踐邊自我提升，逐漸累積第一桶金。

這說明，目標絕對可作為推動力，但得失心過重可能會得不償失。

此外，創業雖是許多人選擇的致富途徑，但不是唯一；更何況不是每個人都具備創業條件。

現實中，打工族未必和百萬身家絕緣。

一名不願具名打工皇帝就認為，要存得百萬現金，並沒有想像中困難。

這名工作經驗豐富、目前仍是打工族的百萬富翁，第一桶金主要是公積金儲蓄，沒有遺產或其他收入。

他的秘訣很簡單，就是做好預算和花費絕對不能超過收入。

他是在成家立室、37歲那年才開始真正儲蓄，而且他在購屋后很快就還清房貸，如今未欠分文。

這名打工皇帝今年已55歲，目前仍工作且持續儲蓄。

“要存得百萬未必得過度節儉，我和家人每年出國旅遊兩次，每週至少一次到餐館吃飯。”

但他提醒道，要保障財富，最大前提是不要把錢花在不實際的投資或被騙。

追求財富
先瞭解潛意識

創業、投資失敗的話，該怎么做才能擺脫陰影、重新奮鬥？

尼克萊佛士指出，要擺脫陰影，就得回歸最原始的目標及信念。

他透露，每人在尋求財富背后的目的才是致富關鍵，這包括了解心靈最深處、未獲認知的潛意識部分。

“每個人要的東西都不同，儘管目標相似，但信念可能有異，而且這種信念，可能是連自己都不察覺的一種潛意識。”

下意識影響奮鬥

他舉例說，一名銷售員擁有一套非常完整致富及成功計劃，除了具備高昂激勵士氣，也清楚銷售目標、聯繫網絡等的重要性。

但問題卻在實踐過程中出現了。

銷售員覺得他所做的一切已超出舒適水平，對成功的追求也出現矛盾想法。

尼克萊佛士指出，經過經過輔導治療才發覺，這名銷售員潛意識中，不認同自己常工作到深夜，犧牲太多個人時間。

他說，由于銷售員對成功的潛意識定義，是成功之際也擁有良好人際關係和個人空間，但現實中的日夜顛倒，讓他下意識無法認同也影響其奮鬥。

“因此認清潛意識中的障礙，確定自己能夠接受相關奮鬥模式，致富路上才能心無旁騖。”

富翁秘訣：自律

不管是打工還是做生意，如果無法保住賺來的錢，錢進錢出的后果，是一無所有！

《鄰家的百萬富翁》作者就發現，許多富翁都堅守“自律”原則，才得以保住百萬身家。

不少富翁不追崇奢侈品或容易貶值的物品，例如買車只買便宜的二手車。

因為這樣他們就能減少一筆支出，而可以善用這筆省下的資金來投資，提高回酬。

若無法在短期內大幅提高收入，至少你要掌握成功富豪們的秘訣，在理財路上遵守自律原則，量入而出。

Oil: Biggest drop in 17 years

Crude prices fall by largest dollar amount since 1991 as investors fear the decline in U.S. demand could spread overseas as Europe's economies slow.

NEW YORK - Oil prices plummeted Friday, erasing the previous session's spike, as the dollar strengthened and investors worried that a decline in demand will spread outside the United States.

U.S. crude for October delivery dropped $6.59 to settle at $114.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The drop in oil was the largest single-day slide in dollar terms since Jan. 17, 1991, when oil fell by $10.56. On that day, President George H.W. Bush withdrew oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve ahead of the first Gulf War.

But in 1991, oil was trading at just $32 a barrel, so the more than $10 slide in dollar terms represented a record 33% drop. Oil fell 5.4% Tuesday, which does not even crack the top 50 price declines in percentage terms.

Oil's second-largest slide on Friday comes a day after the second-largest gain on record. Crude futures soared $5.62 a barrel Thursday to rise above $121 a barrel.

"We're trending towards a lot of oil price volatility on the direction of the dollar," said Peter Beutel, an oil analyst with Cameron Hanover. "There are huge amounts of money involved, and the large moves have been based primarily on dollar strength."

Dollar rebounds: The dollar rose after a key measurement showed British economic growth stalled in the second quarter.

The U.K.'s gross domestic product between April and June showed zero growth, the country's statistics office reported Friday.

The economic weakness in Britain signaled that falling demand for oil due to high fuel prices could spread to Europe, according to Kyle Cooper, director of research with IAF Advisors in Houston.

"Fewer trucks delivering packages, fewer people going to work ... There's a very strong correlation between GDP growth and oil usage," said Cooper.

The U.K. report follows other reports this week showing weakness in the euro zone and Japanese economies, putting U.S. investment - and the dollar - in a more favorable light.

A stronger dollar makes crude more expensive for foreign investors, because crude futures are traded in U.S. currency. Rising dollar values also pull investor money out of oil, since many use crude and other commodities as a hedge against inflation.

Georgia-Russia: Oil rose Thursday on tensions between NATO and Russia over the nation's occupation of Georgia. Georgia contains several vital pipeline links that carry crude oil and natural gas between Europe and Asia.

But those tensions appeared to ease Friday.

"There was the potential for some type of action across the Georgian border and we just haven't seen anything," said Neal Dingmann, senior energy analyst with Dahlman Rose & Co.

Also easing supply worries, a BP-led consortium prepared to resume oil flow through the region's Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, a major oil link between Turkey and the Caspian Sea.

"We're still integrity testing," said BP spokesman Toby Odone, "We expect it will be back in normal operation next week."

U.S. gasoline demand: Falling demand for petroleum-based fuels in the United States has been the main force behind oil's fall from a record high of $147.27 in mid-July.

Demand for gasoline last week was about 9.5 million barrels a day, or 1.6% lower than it was last year, according to an Energy Department inventory report released Wednesday.

Drivers were also spending less time on the road in June, according to a second report from the Transportation Department last week.

Drivers will even cut back over the Labor Day weekend, according to a projection from motorist group AAA. The number of travelers avoiding cars and air travel, and using buses, trains, or other transportation will increase by 12.5% this year, AAA said.

National gasoline prices are down more than 42 cents a gallon from the record high set last month, according to the AAA's daily survey of service stations, falling below $3.70 a gallon.

With Oil Demand Down, Prices Are Leveling Off

Until recently, it seemed that oil prices could move in only one direction: up. But in the last few weeks, the great energy rally that kicked off at the beginning of the decade has shown signs of running out of steam.

A combination of weak economic growth, slowing demand and shifting perceptions has sent oil prices down 21 percent from last month’s peak. Prices have fallen in two of every three trading sessions this month despite hurricanes looming over the Gulf of Mexico’s offshore wells, a war in the Caucasus that threatens Caspian supplies and more violence in Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta.

Only a short while ago, such events would have sent prices still higher. But energy markets, which for years had focused mainly on risks to supplies, have suddenly started paying attention to the impact that high prices are having on consumers.

By any measure, oil prices remain high and have become increasingly volatile. Oil is up 19 percent this year and has been stuck above $100 a barrel since early March.

On Friday, prices dropped the most since 2004, falling 5 percent to $114.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A day earlier, they shot up by almost 5 percent.

“The market psychology has shifted dramatically,” said James Crandell, an energy analyst at Lehman Brothers. “It now clings to the bearish news that was shrugged off early in the year in the pursuit of higher prices.”

Energy specialists are split on where the market is headed. One camp argues that today’s slowdown is temporary and that global oil supplies will remain constrained for years. When growth picks up again, in this view, so will prices.

Another camp contends that the current slowdown heralds a lasting shift in consumption patterns as consumers trade their gas guzzlers for smaller cars and businesses find ways to use less energy.

Perhaps the biggest question is whether oil prices will drop enough to give consumers some relief, while at the same time remain high enough to call forth new supplies, spur investment in alternative fuels and encourage consumers to use energy more efficiently.

Oil prices have typically tended to stabilize for long periods — when adjusted for inflation, prices look like flat lines for years on end. In the 1990s, a period when supplies were plentiful, prices hovered around $20 to $25 a barrel. But it is unclear where today’s market will find stability, with forecasts of the near-term price ranging from $90 to $150 a barrel.

“The market is still trying to find an equilibrium,” said Michael Wittner, the global head of oil research at Société Générale, in London. He predicts oil will bottom at $105 a barrel in September, before rebounding next year to $120 as supplies remain tight. “Prices need to remain, quote-unquote, high, to continue to limit growth in demand.”

Oil consumption has been falling in all major industrialized countries, including the United States, Japan, Germany and Britain. Sales of big cars and trucks have plummeted, airlines have trouble filling their seats and drivers are making fewer trips.

Gasoline prices, which rose to a nationwide average of $4.11 a gallon last month, now average $3.69 a gallon, according to AAA, the automobile group. The prices have forced many consumers to cut their spending on other items.

Americans drove 12.2 billion fewer miles in June than in June 2007, a drop of 4.7 percent, according to the Department of Transportation. Between November and June, total miles driven dropped by 53.2 billion, the steepest decline registered in a century of data collection, said Doug Hecox, a spokesman for the department.

Gasoline demand is declining as a result. Consumption has fallen for 27 consecutive weeks and is down 2.5 percent since the beginning of the year, said Michael McNamara, the vice president of MasterCard Spending Pulse, who tracks retail gasoline sales nationwide.

“It’s really when prices surpassed the $3- to $3.15-a-gallon threshold that we began to see a steady erosion in demand and consumers changing their behavior,” Mr. McNamara said.

Now that gasoline is falling from its high, however, analysts are wondering whether that trend will turn around. The oil shocks of the 1970s and 1980s led to surging prices and sharp cutbacks in consumption. But they were followed by a long period of low energy prices, and as a result, consumption rose again.

“We’ve been there before, in the late 1970s, and the question is will we be there again if the price crashes,” said Lee Schipper, a transportation expert and visiting scholar at the University of California, Berkeley.

Because many developing countries subsidize their energy costs, preventing them from rising too much, falling demand in the industrial world will be more than offset by growth in emerging markets like China and the Middle East. Global oil consumption is still expected to grow by about 1 percent this year, or 790,000 barrels a day, according to the latest forecasts by the International Energy Agency. That is half of the rate of growth in demand during the 1990s.

“We still have not seen clear signs of slowing demand in the emerging-market economies; however, we believe these signs are still to come,” said Mr. Crandell, of Lehman. “It won’t be negative demand, but these countries will slow to a more restrained pace.”

Commodity Bulls Bump The Dollar

LONDON - Two influential personalities in the investment world made the case on Thursday that the recent dip in commodity prices was not bound to last and that metals from gold to platinum would soon continue their climb skyward. Jim Rogers and Warwick McKibbin may have a point: the dollar fell away from its rising trajectory for the second time this week, as commodities started jumping.

Light, sweet crude for September delivery rose to $116.73 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange Thursday morning. Gold, meanwhile, rose nearly 2.0%, to its highest price in a week, in morning trading in London, hitting $824.20 an ounce--though that was still well below the all-time high of $1,030.80 struck in March.

According to TradeTheNews.com, investment guru Jim Rogers said Thursday that the recent drop in commodity prices was a correction in a bull market and that they would continue to rise because of short supply. He added that he was mulling buying metals again. Last June, Rogers helped set up a share index that tracked the performance of companies dealing in commodities (rather than the commodities themselves). (See "Jim Rogers's New Way To Ride Commodities Boom.")

Warwick McKibbin agrees. The Australian National University economics professor and board member of the Reserve Bank of Australia seconded Rogers on Thursday, according to TradeTheNews.com, in remarking that fears that the commodity boom was coming to an end were overdone. He said growth and subsequent demand for metals and other raw materials from China and India would continue to support prices.

The commodities spike had a noticeable effect on the dollar in Thursday trading. The euro bought $1.477, up from $1.468 late Wednesday in New York. The greenback also fell by 1.0% against the Japanese yen, buying 108.79 yen in late trading in Asia on Thursday, down from 110.00 yen late Wednesday.

Adding to the downward pressure on the greenback are persistent worries about the health of America's financial sector, particularly of the mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In addition, a report in the Financial Times said Thursday that Lehman Brothers had tried to sell half its shares to China's CITIC Securities and the state-owned Korea Development Bank but that both investors had balked at the high price.

巴菲特索羅斯,看好能源股

原物料行情持續探底，卻沒有影響投資大師的選股策略，巴菲特和索羅斯有志一同。

本著看長不看短的原則，巴菲特和索羅斯一致看好能源股，例如波克夏在第二季就砸下8億1000萬令吉買電力公司，同時間索羅斯則以25億4000萬令吉大舉買進巴西石油。

擅長買進潛力股的全球首富巴菲特，投資組合一向受人矚目，巴菲特掌管的波克夏海瑟威公司，今年第二季購股金額高達39.8億美元（133億4597萬令吉），新投資的對象包括德州第二大電力公司NRG Energy，巴菲特共砸下8億1000萬令吉，買進324萬股。

加碼法製藥

分析師認為，巴菲特應該是看準能源股價跌幅夠深，已浮現價值，而且巴菲特習慣把資金放在保守產品上，因此他持續加碼能源產業的決定，一點也不讓人意外。

至于波克夏上一季申報持有的美國第二大煉油業者康菲石油，新申報卻對該公司的持股數量保密，可能是為了避免其他人跟進投資。

另外，波克夏在投資申報上也顯示，巴菲特增加法國製藥業者賽諾菲安萬特的持股，巴菲特加碼能源跟醫藥類的同時，卻減少消費性類持股，啤酒製造商安布公司的持股減少61%。

總計巴菲特上半年共投資55.1億美元（184億7645萬令吉）在股票上，遠比去年同期還少，這可能意味著巴菲特預期股市還會持續下跌。

有金融大鱷之稱的索羅斯也有志一同，根據索羅斯基金管理公司提交給美國證管會的報告，索羅斯砸下8.11億美元（27億1949萬令吉），大舉買進巴西國營石油巴西石油持股，投資比例高達索羅斯公司22%，是索羅斯第二季最大投資。

隱藏式投資,主權基金商品最大炒家

從經紀、交易商、及國會調查員所得的資料顯示，許多國家的主權基金，才是原材料的最大炒家。

美國《華盛頓郵報》（Washington Post）向處理華爾街投資銀行投資的經紀、資深交易商、以及國會調查者所做訪問，顯示負責為政府管理龐大投資基金的外國主權基金，是參與美國石油，以及包括玉米與棉花等其他重要商品買賣的最大炒家。

商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）曾于6月份致函國會，指調查顯示主權基金並非影響商品交易的一個重大因素。

但熟悉市場交易的消息人士，指CFTC並無察覺到這些外國基金，對商品市場的影響力與日俱增。

禍源亞洲

這主因是因為這些基金，多是透過未持有實體商品的交換交易商（Swap Dealer）參與投資，這些交易商通常是在未受管制的市場上交易，造成這種隱藏式的投資角色，不易被人發現。

據一間大型交換交易商透露，涉及商品交易的外國主權基金，非來自西亞的產油國，而是主要來自亞洲那些並無從產油中賺錢的國家。

數名美國民主黨國會議員稱，共和黨人領導的CFTC，並無利用他們的權力去壓制這些不受管制的活動，因為他們不想損害親共和黨，及具影響力的華爾街大公司。

CFTC發言人則表示，他們的數據顯示，基本的供求因素，而非金融演員，是影響油價上升及下跌的最主要因素。

但他們已下令交換交易商，公開他們的交易紀錄及披露更多信息，以顯示有關主權基金與其他金融演員不受管制活動的情況，這項調查報告將于下月中公布。